This paper studies the problem of privacy preservation in achieving the average consensus of dynamic Multi-Agent Systems(MAS).Average consensus performs an essential role in dynamic MAS to promote collaboration,coordi...This paper studies the problem of privacy preservation in achieving the average consensus of dynamic Multi-Agent Systems(MAS).Average consensus performs an essential role in dynamic MAS to promote collaboration,coordinate decision-making,resolve conflicts,and enhance system reliability.The process of achieving average consensus requires the information exchange between agents,which raises concerns about sensitive data leakage.To address this issue,we propose a novel algorithm that combines state decomposition with edge characteristics in network topology to protect the critical data during the average consensus process.Specifically,the original state of each agent is decomposed into|Ni|+1 substates,where|Ni|represents the number of neighboring nodes.For each agent,the public substate performs the function of the original state to participate in computation and interaction between other agents,while the private parts only interact with the first one of the same agent and keep invisible to other agents.Unlike other approaches that focus solely on the privacy preservation of agents'initial state information,this paper extends to dynamic state of agents at every moment.Next,rigorous proofs of the accuracy in average consensus are provided.Furthermore,it is shown that privacy can be protected by employing our algorithm if agent i has at least one neighbor who is not an honest-but-curious agent.As for external eavesdroppers,a sufficient condition is presented that the state information is not estimated with any guaranteed accuracy.Finally,numerical simulations are presented to verify the effectiveness of our approach.展开更多
Background:Osteoarthritis(OA),the most prevalent joint disease and a leading cause of disability globally,has its disease burden inadequately captured by body mass index(BMI).As the sole quantified risk factor in curr...Background:Osteoarthritis(OA),the most prevalent joint disease and a leading cause of disability globally,has its disease burden inadequately captured by body mass index(BMI).As the sole quantified risk factor in current Global Burden of Disease estimates,BMI accounted for only 20%of OA burden.A critical limitation of BMI is its inability to distinguish fat distribution patterns,particularly abdominal adiposity,which is increasingly recognized as a key driver of metabolic and musculoskeletal pathologies.Herein,we hypothesize that anthropometric indicators reflecting central adiposity,such as average sagittal abdominal diameter(ASAD),may outperform BMI in predicting OA risk,especially when considering sex and age differences.Methods:This cross-sectional study analyzed 27,791 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey participants(1999-2023)with complete OA diagnosis,anthropometric,and metabolic data.Participants were stratified by sex and age(40-year cutoff).Multivariable logistic regression,adjusted for confounders,estimated predictor-OA associations via stan-dardized odds ratios(sORs),and these associations were evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUROC).Data were split into training(70%)and validation(30%)sets,with DeLong's test comparing different predictors against BMI.Results:In the overall population,ASAD showed a stronger association with OA(sOR=1.483)than BMI(sOR=1.436),with comparable validation AUROC(ASAD:0.857;BMI:0.854).Sex-stratified analysis revealed that BMI was the optimal predictor for males(sOR=1.466;validation AUROC=0.844),while ASAD outperformed BMI in females(sOR=1.486 vs.1.450;validation AUROC=O.865 vs.0.863).Further age stratification revealed that in males under 40,both BMI(sOR=1.26l;validation AUROC=0.750)and ASAD(sOR=1.194;validation AUROC=0.889)were the strongest predictors,and that ASAD(sOR=1.490;validation AUROC=0.769)and BMI(sOR=1.482;validation AUROC=0.736)remained strong for males aged 40 and above.In age-stratified analyses of females,ASAD showed the strongest consistent association with OA risk,both in participants under 40(sOR=1.472;validation AUROC=0.801)and those aged 40 and above(sOR=1.421;validation AUROC=0.764).Conclusions:ASAD emerges as a superior predictor for females and a competitive population-level complement to BMI.BMI remains an optimal OA predictor for males.Within the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey framework,these findings underscore the necessity of integrating abdominal adiposity metrics,particularly ASAD,into OA risk assessment to improve sex-specific prevention strategies.展开更多
In this paper,using the ensemble-averaged theory,we define the thermodynamic free energy of Einstein-Gauss-Bonnet(EGB)black holes in anti-de Sitter(Ad S)spacetime.This approach derives the gravitational partition func...In this paper,using the ensemble-averaged theory,we define the thermodynamic free energy of Einstein-Gauss-Bonnet(EGB)black holes in anti-de Sitter(Ad S)spacetime.This approach derives the gravitational partition function by incorporating non-saddle geometries besides the classical solutions.Unlike the sharp transition points seen in free energy calculated via saddlepoint approximation,the ensemble-averaged free energy plotted against temperature shows a smoother behavior,suggesting that black hole phase transitions may be viewed as a small-GN(Newton's gravitational constant)limit of the ensemble theory.This is similar to the behavior of black hole solutions in Einstein's gravity theory in Ad S spacetime.We have obtained an expression for the quantum-corrected free energy for EGB-Ad S black holes,and in the sixdimensional case,we observe a well-defined local minimum after the transition temperature which was absent in the earlier analysis of the classical free energy landscape.Furthermore,we expand the ensemble-averaged free energy in powers of GNto identify non-classical contributions.Our findings indicate that the similarities in the thermodynamic behavior between five-dimensional EGB-Ad S and Reissner-Nordström-Ad S black holes,as well as between sixdimensional EGB-Ad S and Schwarzschild-Ad S black holes,extend beyond the classical regime.展开更多
Small datasets are often challenging due to their limited sample size.This research introduces a novel solution to these problems:average linkage virtual sample generation(ALVSG).ALVSG leverages the underlying data st...Small datasets are often challenging due to their limited sample size.This research introduces a novel solution to these problems:average linkage virtual sample generation(ALVSG).ALVSG leverages the underlying data structure to create virtual samples,which can be used to augment the original dataset.The ALVSG process consists of two steps.First,an average-linkage clustering technique is applied to the dataset to create a dendrogram.The dendrogram represents the hierarchical structure of the dataset,with each merging operation regarded as a linkage.Next,the linkages are combined into an average-based dataset,which serves as a new representation of the dataset.The second step in the ALVSG process involves generating virtual samples using the average-based dataset.The research project generates a set of 100 virtual samples by uniformly distributing them within the provided boundary.These virtual samples are then added to the original dataset,creating a more extensive dataset with improved generalization performance.The efficacy of the ALVSG approach is validated through resampling experiments and t-tests conducted on two small real-world datasets.The experiments are conducted on three forecasting models:the support vector machine for regression(SVR),the deep learning model(DL),and XGBoost.The results show that the ALVSG approach outperforms the baseline methods in terms of mean square error(MSE),root mean square error(RMSE),and mean absolute error(MAE).展开更多
Power demand is increasing in all sectors of the developing nations;however,the inadequate and disproportionate generation and distribution resources create a burden for the authorities to efficiently manage the power...Power demand is increasing in all sectors of the developing nations;however,the inadequate and disproportionate generation and distribution resources create a burden for the authorities to efficiently manage the power grid.This results in network overloading and consequent blackouts.To efficiently manage the resources,short-term consumption modeling(using physical or data-based models)is mandatory.Physical models,in contrast to the data-based models,are generally complex and difficult to be used for automatic control strategies for the grid.However,for the latter,there is generally a lack of data availability in the developing nations,as energy measurements are taken just once a month for billing purposes.A recent study conducted consumption measurements,at a high sampling rate,of 42 residential houses from different neighborhoods in Lahore,Pakistan.As mentioned earlier,such a dataset is rare in the developing nations,therefore,leverage the availability of this data set and perform SARIMA(seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average)and ARIMA(autoregressive integrated moving average)based time series modelling of the consumption.Furthermore,for a wider applicability of the results,this work also includes clustering of the houses based on the parameters such as power consumption in different seasons,number of occupants,structural attributes,demographics,and household appliances.Hierarchical clustering with complete linkage was used to derive household groups,Euclidean distance was applied as the similarity metric,and silhouette analysis validated cluster compactness and separation.We report models of different groups of residential houses,categorized with respect to the aforementioned parameters,to facilitate the operators for efficient power management.The findings in this paper are supported by a variety of simulation results,across 41 households,the dataset was split into training and testing sets,corresponding to 93–7%for the 24-h horizon and 82–18%for the 72-h horizon,which showed that SARIMA consistently outperformed ARIMA,reducing errors for 24-h(MAE:0.30→0.23 kW,RMSE:0.40→0.32 kW,MAPE:36.9→28.3%)and 72-h horizons(MAE:0.39→0.32 kW,RMSE:0.51→0.41 kW,MAPE:49.1→39.54%)and yielding lower AICc values.Clustering validation using silhouette widths(0.13–0.25)confirmed the robustness of identified household groups.展开更多
The focus of this paper is on distributed average tracking(DAT)in the context of external disturbances,utilizing an event-triggered control mechanism.First,an event-triggered anti-disturbance DAT(ETAD-DAT)algorithm is...The focus of this paper is on distributed average tracking(DAT)in the context of external disturbances,utilizing an event-triggered control mechanism.First,an event-triggered anti-disturbance DAT(ETAD-DAT)algorithm is proposed to reduce communication load in networked control systems by redesigning existing anti-disturbance DAT algorithms and disturbance observers.Furthermore,a fully distributed event-triggering condition is employed to schedule event times for each agent.Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed ETAD-DAT algorithm is able to achieve accurate average tracking of multiple time-varying reference signals despite the presence of external disturbances,while the communication efficiency can be improved obviously.展开更多
The article is devoted to the determination of the average daily and during the hours of maximum electric load according to the data of electricity consumption,taking into account the generalized coefficient Ai for ap...The article is devoted to the determination of the average daily and during the hours of maximum electric load according to the data of electricity consumption,taking into account the generalized coefficient Ai for apartment buildings and individual residential buildings in Chelyabinsk and the cities of Dushanbe and Khorog of the Republic of Tajikistan.The results of modeling the average daily electric load taking into account the developed generalized coefficient Ai show that the specific power values for apartments in apartment buildings and in individual residential buildings in the city of Chelyabinsk and the cities of Dushanbe and Khorog of the Republic of Tajikistan are overestimated,taking into account the applicability in the Republic of Tajikistan of the same standard values of specific electric loads(SEL)of apartments in apartment buildings(AB)as in the Russian Federation.According to the results of modeling using the data of the average monthly electricity consumption for 226 apartments in ABs and for individual residential buildings in Chelyabinsk,according to the proposed approach,the average daily electric load on days during the month varies in the range of 2–3.5 kW/sq and below a,for the cities of Dushanbe and Khorog of the Republic of Tajikistan in the range of 2–5 kW/sq and below,which does not exceed the SEL of the given RB 256.1325800.2016.However,due to the lack of other energy sources(gas supply and hot water supply)in the conditions of the Republic of Tajikistan and on the basis of the obtained maximum load time factor and the generalized coefficient Ai(E)the obtained values of actual capacity exceed the maximum in hours by 1.2–2.5 times the SEL given RB 256.1325800.2016.展开更多
Dear Editor,This letter introduces a novel algorithm for privacy preservation designed to safeguard both the initial and real-time states of agents under complete distributed average consensus.It addresses a gap in ex...Dear Editor,This letter introduces a novel algorithm for privacy preservation designed to safeguard both the initial and real-time states of agents under complete distributed average consensus.It addresses a gap in existing privacy preservation approaches that predominantly focus on protecting the initial state,with limited consideration for privacy implications throughout the entire process.The algorithm ensures the privacy of both the initial and real-time states by introducing perturbations to the consensus process,allowing agents to freely define these perturbations themselves.Additionally,the perturbations defined by agents arbitrarily do not compromise the accuracy of the consensus result.One of the main results derived is that no agent has access to the real-time state of another agent.展开更多
The performance and price of copper-based micro linear products are determined by the diameter uniformity.How to accurately detect the wire diameter of long-length copper based micro linear products without cutting or...The performance and price of copper-based micro linear products are determined by the diameter uniformity.How to accurately detect the wire diameter of long-length copper based micro linear products without cutting or damage has always been a technical concern for production enterprises.Herein,a novel approach was developed for nondestructive detection of the average diameter at any given segment of a long copper wire by assessing the adsorption capacity of arginine on its surface.The amount of adsorbent on the surface of the copper wire exhibits a positive correlation with the area,which can be detected by extractive electrospray ionization mass spectrometry(EESI-MS)after online elution with ammonia.The experimental results demonstrated that the analysis can be completed within 15 min,with a good linear relationship between copper wires with different diameters and the adsorption capacity of arginine.The linear correlation coefficient R2was 0.995,the relative standard deviation was 1.10%-2.81%,and the detection limit reached 2.5μm(length of segment=4 cm),showing potential applications for facile measurement of the average diameter of various metal wires.展开更多
We conduct optical-tweezers experiments to investigate the average potential energies of passive plates harmonically trapped in bacterial suspensions.Our results show that the mean potential energies along both the ma...We conduct optical-tweezers experiments to investigate the average potential energies of passive plates harmonically trapped in bacterial suspensions.Our results show that the mean potential energies along both the major and minor axes increase with bacterial concentration but decrease with trap stiffness.Notably,the average potential energy along the major axis consistently exceeds that along the minor axis.This discrepancy from equilibrium systems is primarily attributed to the distinct bacterial flow fields and direct bacterium–plate collisions near the major and minor axes,as evidenced by the higher orientational order around the plate along the major compared to the minor axis,despite identical bacterial densities in these regions.Our findings highlight the critical role of hydrodynamic interactions in determining the potential energy of passive objects immersed in an active bath.展开更多
Current gas well decline analysis under boundary-dominated flow(BDF)is largely based on the Arps'empirical hyperbolic decline model and the analytical type curve tools associated with pseudo-functions.Due to the n...Current gas well decline analysis under boundary-dominated flow(BDF)is largely based on the Arps'empirical hyperbolic decline model and the analytical type curve tools associated with pseudo-functions.Due to the nonlinear flow behavior of natural gas,these analysis methods generally require iterative calculations.In this study,the dimensionless gas rate(qg/qgi)is introduced,and an explicit method to determine the average reservoir pressure and the original gas in place(OGIP)for a volumetric gas reservoir is proposed.We show that the dimensionless gas rate in the BDF is only the function of the gas PVT parameters and reservoir pressure.Step-by-step analysis procedures are presented that enable explicit and straightforward estimation of average reservoir pressure and OGIP by straight-line analysis.Compared with current techniques,this methodology avoids the iterative calculation of pseudo-time and pseudo-pressure functions,lowers the multiplicity of type curve analysis,and is applicable in different production situations(constant/variable gas flow rate,constant/variable bottom-hole pressure)with a broad range of applications and ease of use.Reservoir numerical simulation and field examples are thoroughly discussed to highlight the capabilities of the proposed approach.展开更多
This paper investigates the sliding-mode-based fixed-time distributed average tracking (DAT) problem for multiple Euler-Lagrange systems in the presence of external distur-bances. The primary objective is to devise co...This paper investigates the sliding-mode-based fixed-time distributed average tracking (DAT) problem for multiple Euler-Lagrange systems in the presence of external distur-bances. The primary objective is to devise controllers for each agent, enabling them to precisely track the average of multiple time-varying reference signals. By averaging these signals, we can mitigate the influence of errors and uncertainties arising dur-ing measurements, thereby enhancing the robustness and stabi-lity of the system. A distributed fixed-time average estimator is proposed to estimate the average value of global reference sig-nals utilizing local information and communication with neigh-bors. Subsequently, a fixed-time sliding mode controller is intro-duced incorporating a state-dependent sliding mode function coupled with a variable exponent coefficient to achieve dis-tributed average tracking of reference signals, and rigorous ana-lytical methods are employed to substantiate the fixed-time sta-bility. Finally, numerical simulation results are provided to vali-date the effectiveness of the proposed methodology, offering insights into its practical application and robust performance.展开更多
The dynamic average consensus(DAC)algorithm is to enable a group of networked agents to track the average of their time-varying reference signals.For most existing DAC algorithms,a necessary assumption is that the upp...The dynamic average consensus(DAC)algorithm is to enable a group of networked agents to track the average of their time-varying reference signals.For most existing DAC algorithms,a necessary assumption is that the upper bounds of the reference signals and their derivatives are known in advance,thereby posing significant challenges in practical scenarios.Introducing adaptive gains in DAC algorithms provides a remedy by relaxing this assumption.However,the current adaptive gains used in this type of DAC algorithms are non-decreasing and may increase to infinity if persist disturbance exists.In order to overcome this defect,this paper presents a novel DAC algorithm with modified adaptive gains.This approach obviates the necessity for prior knowledge concerning the upper bounds of the reference signals and their derivatives.Moreover,the adaptive gains are able to remain bounded even in the presence of external disturbances.Furthermore,the proposed adaptive DAC algorithm is employed to address the distributed secondary control problem of DC microgrids.Comparative case studies are provided to verify the superiority of the proposed DAC algorithm.展开更多
High-average-power strong-field terahertz(THz)pulses,which are generated via the optical rectification of 100-W average-power ytterbium(Yb)lasers in a nonlinear crystal,have been used to study extreme physical phenome...High-average-power strong-field terahertz(THz)pulses,which are generated via the optical rectification of 100-W average-power ytterbium(Yb)lasers in a nonlinear crystal,have been used to study extreme physical phenomena and realize various applications.However,this THz generation method suffers from a trade-off in which high repetition rates lead to low optical-to-THz energy conversion efficiency,as well as the risk of damage to the crystals under high average pumping power.In this study,we demonstrate a high-averagepower,high-repetition-rate,strong-field THz source in lithium niobate driven by a 1030 nm,1 ps,2 mJ,100 kHz Yb femtosecond laser with a tilted-pulse front-pumping configuration.By characterizing two key experimental parameters,namely the pump spot size and pulse duration,we achieve,to the best of our knowledge,the highest THz average power of 104mW at 100 kHz,with a conversion efficiency of 0.1%and without any cooling operation at room temperature.In addition,a strong electric field of 421 kV/cm is achieved at 1 kHz.Our THz system directly demonstrates its potential capabilities in high-signal-to-noise spectroscopy,imaging,nondestructive testing,and relevant THz applications.展开更多
Si,as the most promising anode with high theoretical capacity for next-generation lithium-ion batteries(LIBs),is hampered in commercial application by its poor electrical conductivity and significant volume expansion....Si,as the most promising anode with high theoretical capacity for next-generation lithium-ion batteries(LIBs),is hampered in commercial application by its poor electrical conductivity and significant volume expansion.Herein,the core-shell Si@SiOx/C@C-Ar(SSC-A)or Si@SiOx/C@C-H2/Ar(SSC-H)composites are purposefully designed by in situ introduction of inorganic SiOxin pure Ar or H2/Ar atmosphere to realize a Si-based anode for LIBs.By introducing different atmospheres,the valence states of SiOxare regulated.The inorganic transition layer formed by the combination of SiOxwith higher average valence and asphalt-derived carbon demonstrates better performance in both stabilizing the core-shell structure and inhibiting the agglomeration of Si particles.Given these advantages,the SSC-A electrode exhibits excellent electrochemical performance(1163 mAh g-1after 400 cycles at 1 A g-1),and the commercial blended graphite-SSC-A electrode reaches a specific capacity of 442 mAh g-1with 74.8%capacity retention under the same conditions.Even the SSC-A electrode without Super P maintains an ultrahigh discharge specific capacity of 803 mAh g-1with 60.6%after cycling.Importantly,the full batteries based on SSC-A without Super P achieve a discharge specific capacity of 126 mAh g-1with 28.2%capacity decay after 200 cycles,demonstrating the superior commercial application potential.展开更多
This study aims to examine the explicit solution for calculating the Average Run Length(ARL)on the triple exponentially weighted moving average(TEWMA)control chart applied to autoregressive model(AR(p)),where AR(p)is ...This study aims to examine the explicit solution for calculating the Average Run Length(ARL)on the triple exponentially weighted moving average(TEWMA)control chart applied to autoregressive model(AR(p)),where AR(p)is an autoregressive model of order p,representing a time series with dependencies on its p previous values.Additionally,the study evaluates the accuracy of both explicit and numerical integral equation(NIE)solutions for AR(p)using the TEWMA control chart,focusing on the absolute percentage relative error.The results indicate that the explicit and approximate solutions are in close agreement.Furthermore,the study investigates the performance of exponentially weighted moving average(EWMA)and TEWMA control charts in detecting changes in the process,using the relative mean index(RMI)as a measure.The findings demonstrate that the TEWMA control chart outperforms the EWMA control chart in detecting process changes,especially when the value ofλis sufficiently large.In addition,an analysis using historical data from the SET index between January 2024 and May 2024 and historical data of global annual plastic production,the results of both data sets also emphasize the superior performance of the TEWMA control chart.展开更多
This paper investigates the influence of numerical methods and mesh resolution on the prediction accuracy of the aerodynamic behaviors of a 1/20 scaled generic high-speed train(HST)model.A thorough comparison is made ...This paper investigates the influence of numerical methods and mesh resolution on the prediction accuracy of the aerodynamic behaviors of a 1/20 scaled generic high-speed train(HST)model.A thorough comparison is made between partially averaged Navier-Stokes(PANS),large eddy simulation(LES),and wind tunnel experiments,covering aerodynamic forces,surface pressure,velocity distribution,and Reynolds stress and turbulent kinetic energy in the wake region.The Reynolds number for both simulations and experiments is set to 4.75×105.The results show that the PANS approach accurately predicts flow characteristics observed in experiments and fine LES calculations,even with a low resolution grid.PANS exhibits a distinct advantage over LES when grid resolutions are insufficient for resolving near wall flow structures around the HST,both in open-air conditions and crosswind environments.Additionally,grid refinement improves the predictive accuracy of the HST's aerodynamic performance,particularly in the presence of small yaw angle.展开更多
Thermal vibrational convection(TVC)refers to the time-averaged convection of a non-isothermal fluid subjected to oscillating force fields.It serves as an effective mechanism for heat transfer control,particularly unde...Thermal vibrational convection(TVC)refers to the time-averaged convection of a non-isothermal fluid subjected to oscillating force fields.It serves as an effective mechanism for heat transfer control,particularly under microgravity conditions.A key challenge in this field is understanding the effect of rotation on TVC,as fluid oscillations in rotating systems exhibit unique and specific characteristics.In this study,we examine TVC in a vertical flat layer with boundaries at different temperatures,rotating around a horizontal axis.The distinctive feature of this study is that the fluid oscillations within the cavity are not induced by vibrations of the cavity itself,but rather by the gravity field,giving them a tidal nature.Our findings reveal that inertial waves generated in the rotating layer qualitatively alter the TVC structure,producing time-averaged flows in the form of toroidal vortices.Experimental investigations of the structure of oscillatory and time-averaged flows,conducted using Particle Image Velocimetry(PIV)for flow velocity visualization,are complemented by theoretical calculations of inertial modes in a cavity with this geometry.To the best of our knowledge,this study represents the first of its kind.The agreement between experimental results and theoretical predictions confirms that the formation of convective structures in the form of toroidal vortices is driven by inertial waves induced by the gravity field.A decrease in the rotational velocity leads to a transformation of the convective structures,shifting from toroidal vortices of inertial-wave origin to classical cellular TVC.We present dimensionless parameters that define the excitation thresholds for both cellular convection and toroidal structures.展开更多
Assume that{ai,−∞<i<∞}is an absolutely summable sequence of real numbers.We establish the complete q-order moment convergence for the partial sums of moving average processes{Xn=Σi=−∞∞aiY_(i+...Assume that{ai,−∞<i<∞}is an absolutely summable sequence of real numbers.We establish the complete q-order moment convergence for the partial sums of moving average processes{Xn=Σi=−∞∞aiYi+n,n≥1}under some proper conditions,where{Yi,-∞<i<∞}is a doubly infinite sequence of negatively dependent random variables under sub-linear expectations.These results extend and complement the relevant results in probability space.展开更多
BACKGROUND Hepatitis B(HB)and hepatitis C(HC)place the largest burden in China,and a goal of eliminating them as a major public health threat by 2030 has been set.Making more informed and accurate forecasts of their s...BACKGROUND Hepatitis B(HB)and hepatitis C(HC)place the largest burden in China,and a goal of eliminating them as a major public health threat by 2030 has been set.Making more informed and accurate forecasts of their spread is essential for developing effective strategies,heightening the requirement for early warning to deal with such a major public health threat.AIM To monitor HB and HC epidemics by the design of a paradigmatic seasonal autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average(SARFIMA)for projections into 2030,and to compare the effectiveness with the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average(SARIMA).METHODS Monthly HB and HC incidence cases in China were obtained from January 2004 to June 2023.Descriptive analysis and the Hodrick-Prescott method were employed to identify trends and seasonality.Two periods(from January 2004 to June 2022 and from January 2004 to December 2015,respectively)were used as the training sets to develop both models,while the remaining periods served as the test sets to evaluate the forecasting accuracy.RESULTS There were incidents of 23400874 HB cases and 3590867 HC cases from January 2004 to June 2023.Overall,HB remained steady[average annual percentage change(AAPC)=0.44,95%confidence interval(95%CI):-0.94-1.84]while HC was increasing(AAPC=8.91,95%CI:6.98-10.88),and both had a peak in March and a trough in February.In the 12-step-ahead HB forecast,the mean absolute deviation(15211.94),root mean square error(18762.94),mean absolute percentage error(0.17),mean error rate(0.15),and root mean square percentage error(0.25)under the best SARFIMA(3,0,0)(0,0.449,2)12 were smaller than those under the best SARIMA(3,0,0)(0,1,2)12(16867.71,20775.12,0.19,0.17,and 0.27,respectively).Similar results were also observed for the 90-step-ahead HB,12-step-ahead HC,and 90-step-ahead HC forecasts.The predicted HB incidents totaled 9865400(95%CI:7508093-12222709)cases and HC totaled 1659485(95%CI:856681-2462290)cases during 2023-2030.CONCLUSION Under current interventions,China faces enormous challenges to eliminate HB and HC epidemics by 2030,and effective strategies must be reinforced.The integration of SARFIMA into public health for the management of HB and HC epidemics can potentially result in more informed and efficient interventions,surpassing the capabilities of SARIMA.展开更多
基金co-supported by the National Key Research and Development Project,China(No.2022YFB3104005)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.62003275)+1 种基金the Basic Research Programs(2022)of Taicang,China(No.TC2022JC17)the Ningbo Natural Science Foundation,China(No.2021J046)。
摘要This paper studies the problem of privacy preservation in achieving the average consensus of dynamic Multi-Agent Systems(MAS).Average consensus performs an essential role in dynamic MAS to promote collaboration,coordinate decision-making,resolve conflicts,and enhance system reliability.The process of achieving average consensus requires the information exchange between agents,which raises concerns about sensitive data leakage.To address this issue,we propose a novel algorithm that combines state decomposition with edge characteristics in network topology to protect the critical data during the average consensus process.Specifically,the original state of each agent is decomposed into|Ni|+1 substates,where|Ni|represents the number of neighboring nodes.For each agent,the public substate performs the function of the original state to participate in computation and interaction between other agents,while the private parts only interact with the first one of the same agent and keep invisible to other agents.Unlike other approaches that focus solely on the privacy preservation of agents'initial state information,this paper extends to dynamic state of agents at every moment.Next,rigorous proofs of the accuracy in average consensus are provided.Furthermore,it is shown that privacy can be protected by employing our algorithm if agent i has at least one neighbor who is not an honest-but-curious agent.As for external eavesdroppers,a sufficient condition is presented that the state information is not estimated with any guaranteed accuracy.Finally,numerical simulations are presented to verify the effectiveness of our approach.
基金supported in part by the Center for Neuromusculoske-letal Restorative Medicine,under the Health@InnoHK program laun-ched by the Innovation and Technology Commission(ITC),the Government of the Hong Kong SAR of Chinathe National Natural Science Foundation of China(82302753)+4 种基金the Mainland-Hong Kong Joint Funding Scheme(MHKJFS)of the Innovation and Technology Commission,the Government of the Hong Kong S.A.R.of China(MHP/101/23)the Postdoctoral Fellowship Program of CPSF(GZC20231059)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2023YFEO209700)the Vice-Chancellor Early Career Professorship Scheme of the Chinese University of Hong Kong(CUHK)the Lee Quo Wei and Lee Yick Hoi Lun Professorship in Tissue Engineering and Regenerative Medicine of CUHK.
摘要Background:Osteoarthritis(OA),the most prevalent joint disease and a leading cause of disability globally,has its disease burden inadequately captured by body mass index(BMI).As the sole quantified risk factor in current Global Burden of Disease estimates,BMI accounted for only 20%of OA burden.A critical limitation of BMI is its inability to distinguish fat distribution patterns,particularly abdominal adiposity,which is increasingly recognized as a key driver of metabolic and musculoskeletal pathologies.Herein,we hypothesize that anthropometric indicators reflecting central adiposity,such as average sagittal abdominal diameter(ASAD),may outperform BMI in predicting OA risk,especially when considering sex and age differences.Methods:This cross-sectional study analyzed 27,791 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey participants(1999-2023)with complete OA diagnosis,anthropometric,and metabolic data.Participants were stratified by sex and age(40-year cutoff).Multivariable logistic regression,adjusted for confounders,estimated predictor-OA associations via stan-dardized odds ratios(sORs),and these associations were evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUROC).Data were split into training(70%)and validation(30%)sets,with DeLong's test comparing different predictors against BMI.Results:In the overall population,ASAD showed a stronger association with OA(sOR=1.483)than BMI(sOR=1.436),with comparable validation AUROC(ASAD:0.857;BMI:0.854).Sex-stratified analysis revealed that BMI was the optimal predictor for males(sOR=1.466;validation AUROC=0.844),while ASAD outperformed BMI in females(sOR=1.486 vs.1.450;validation AUROC=O.865 vs.0.863).Further age stratification revealed that in males under 40,both BMI(sOR=1.26l;validation AUROC=0.750)and ASAD(sOR=1.194;validation AUROC=0.889)were the strongest predictors,and that ASAD(sOR=1.490;validation AUROC=0.769)and BMI(sOR=1.482;validation AUROC=0.736)remained strong for males aged 40 and above.In age-stratified analyses of females,ASAD showed the strongest consistent association with OA risk,both in participants under 40(sOR=1.472;validation AUROC=0.801)and those aged 40 and above(sOR=1.421;validation AUROC=0.764).Conclusions:ASAD emerges as a superior predictor for females and a competitive population-level complement to BMI.BMI remains an optimal OA predictor for males.Within the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey framework,these findings underscore the necessity of integrating abdominal adiposity metrics,particularly ASAD,into OA risk assessment to improve sex-specific prevention strategies.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.12347177,and No.12405073)project grant received under the PM USHA Scheme G.O.number G.O.(Rt)No.239/2025/HEDN dated 22.02.2025。
摘要In this paper,using the ensemble-averaged theory,we define the thermodynamic free energy of Einstein-Gauss-Bonnet(EGB)black holes in anti-de Sitter(Ad S)spacetime.This approach derives the gravitational partition function by incorporating non-saddle geometries besides the classical solutions.Unlike the sharp transition points seen in free energy calculated via saddlepoint approximation,the ensemble-averaged free energy plotted against temperature shows a smoother behavior,suggesting that black hole phase transitions may be viewed as a small-GN(Newton's gravitational constant)limit of the ensemble theory.This is similar to the behavior of black hole solutions in Einstein's gravity theory in Ad S spacetime.We have obtained an expression for the quantum-corrected free energy for EGB-Ad S black holes,and in the sixdimensional case,we observe a well-defined local minimum after the transition temperature which was absent in the earlier analysis of the classical free energy landscape.Furthermore,we expand the ensemble-averaged free energy in powers of GNto identify non-classical contributions.Our findings indicate that the similarities in the thermodynamic behavior between five-dimensional EGB-Ad S and Reissner-Nordström-Ad S black holes,as well as between sixdimensional EGB-Ad S and Schwarzschild-Ad S black holes,extend beyond the classical regime.
摘要Small datasets are often challenging due to their limited sample size.This research introduces a novel solution to these problems:average linkage virtual sample generation(ALVSG).ALVSG leverages the underlying data structure to create virtual samples,which can be used to augment the original dataset.The ALVSG process consists of two steps.First,an average-linkage clustering technique is applied to the dataset to create a dendrogram.The dendrogram represents the hierarchical structure of the dataset,with each merging operation regarded as a linkage.Next,the linkages are combined into an average-based dataset,which serves as a new representation of the dataset.The second step in the ALVSG process involves generating virtual samples using the average-based dataset.The research project generates a set of 100 virtual samples by uniformly distributing them within the provided boundary.These virtual samples are then added to the original dataset,creating a more extensive dataset with improved generalization performance.The efficacy of the ALVSG approach is validated through resampling experiments and t-tests conducted on two small real-world datasets.The experiments are conducted on three forecasting models:the support vector machine for regression(SVR),the deep learning model(DL),and XGBoost.The results show that the ALVSG approach outperforms the baseline methods in terms of mean square error(MSE),root mean square error(RMSE),and mean absolute error(MAE).
摘要Power demand is increasing in all sectors of the developing nations;however,the inadequate and disproportionate generation and distribution resources create a burden for the authorities to efficiently manage the power grid.This results in network overloading and consequent blackouts.To efficiently manage the resources,short-term consumption modeling(using physical or data-based models)is mandatory.Physical models,in contrast to the data-based models,are generally complex and difficult to be used for automatic control strategies for the grid.However,for the latter,there is generally a lack of data availability in the developing nations,as energy measurements are taken just once a month for billing purposes.A recent study conducted consumption measurements,at a high sampling rate,of 42 residential houses from different neighborhoods in Lahore,Pakistan.As mentioned earlier,such a dataset is rare in the developing nations,therefore,leverage the availability of this data set and perform SARIMA(seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average)and ARIMA(autoregressive integrated moving average)based time series modelling of the consumption.Furthermore,for a wider applicability of the results,this work also includes clustering of the houses based on the parameters such as power consumption in different seasons,number of occupants,structural attributes,demographics,and household appliances.Hierarchical clustering with complete linkage was used to derive household groups,Euclidean distance was applied as the similarity metric,and silhouette analysis validated cluster compactness and separation.We report models of different groups of residential houses,categorized with respect to the aforementioned parameters,to facilitate the operators for efficient power management.The findings in this paper are supported by a variety of simulation results,across 41 households,the dataset was split into training and testing sets,corresponding to 93–7%for the 24-h horizon and 82–18%for the 72-h horizon,which showed that SARIMA consistently outperformed ARIMA,reducing errors for 24-h(MAE:0.30→0.23 kW,RMSE:0.40→0.32 kW,MAPE:36.9→28.3%)and 72-h horizons(MAE:0.39→0.32 kW,RMSE:0.51→0.41 kW,MAPE:49.1→39.54%)and yielding lower AICc values.Clustering validation using silhouette widths(0.13–0.25)confirmed the robustness of identified household groups.
基金part supported by the National Natural Science Foundation(62203034,62273126,62203035)the Ling-Yan Research and Development Project of Zhejiang Province of China(2023C03185)。
摘要The focus of this paper is on distributed average tracking(DAT)in the context of external disturbances,utilizing an event-triggered control mechanism.First,an event-triggered anti-disturbance DAT(ETAD-DAT)algorithm is proposed to reduce communication load in networked control systems by redesigning existing anti-disturbance DAT algorithms and disturbance observers.Furthermore,a fully distributed event-triggering condition is employed to schedule event times for each agent.Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed ETAD-DAT algorithm is able to achieve accurate average tracking of multiple time-varying reference signals despite the presence of external disturbances,while the communication efficiency can be improved obviously.
摘要The article is devoted to the determination of the average daily and during the hours of maximum electric load according to the data of electricity consumption,taking into account the generalized coefficient Ai for apartment buildings and individual residential buildings in Chelyabinsk and the cities of Dushanbe and Khorog of the Republic of Tajikistan.The results of modeling the average daily electric load taking into account the developed generalized coefficient Ai show that the specific power values for apartments in apartment buildings and in individual residential buildings in the city of Chelyabinsk and the cities of Dushanbe and Khorog of the Republic of Tajikistan are overestimated,taking into account the applicability in the Republic of Tajikistan of the same standard values of specific electric loads(SEL)of apartments in apartment buildings(AB)as in the Russian Federation.According to the results of modeling using the data of the average monthly electricity consumption for 226 apartments in ABs and for individual residential buildings in Chelyabinsk,according to the proposed approach,the average daily electric load on days during the month varies in the range of 2–3.5 kW/sq and below a,for the cities of Dushanbe and Khorog of the Republic of Tajikistan in the range of 2–5 kW/sq and below,which does not exceed the SEL of the given RB 256.1325800.2016.However,due to the lack of other energy sources(gas supply and hot water supply)in the conditions of the Republic of Tajikistan and on the basis of the obtained maximum load time factor and the generalized coefficient Ai(E)the obtained values of actual capacity exceed the maximum in hours by 1.2–2.5 times the SEL given RB 256.1325800.2016.
基金supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(62276036)the Major Project of Scientific and Technological Research Program of Chongqing Municipal Education Commission(KJZD-M202100602)Innovation and Development Joint Fund Project of Chongqing Natural Science Foundation(CSTB2024NSCQ-LZX0118).
摘要Dear Editor,This letter introduces a novel algorithm for privacy preservation designed to safeguard both the initial and real-time states of agents under complete distributed average consensus.It addresses a gap in existing privacy preservation approaches that predominantly focus on protecting the initial state,with limited consideration for privacy implications throughout the entire process.The algorithm ensures the privacy of both the initial and real-time states by introducing perturbations to the consensus process,allowing agents to freely define these perturbations themselves.Additionally,the perturbations defined by agents arbitrarily do not compromise the accuracy of the consensus result.One of the main results derived is that no agent has access to the real-time state of another agent.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.22422402)National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2022YFF0705300)Key Research and Development Program of Jiangxi Province(No.20232BBG70004)。
摘要The performance and price of copper-based micro linear products are determined by the diameter uniformity.How to accurately detect the wire diameter of long-length copper based micro linear products without cutting or damage has always been a technical concern for production enterprises.Herein,a novel approach was developed for nondestructive detection of the average diameter at any given segment of a long copper wire by assessing the adsorption capacity of arginine on its surface.The amount of adsorbent on the surface of the copper wire exhibits a positive correlation with the area,which can be detected by extractive electrospray ionization mass spectrometry(EESI-MS)after online elution with ammonia.The experimental results demonstrated that the analysis can be completed within 15 min,with a good linear relationship between copper wires with different diameters and the adsorption capacity of arginine.The linear correlation coefficient R2was 0.995,the relative standard deviation was 1.10%-2.81%,and the detection limit reached 2.5μm(length of segment=4 cm),showing potential applications for facile measurement of the average diameter of various metal wires.
基金supports of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.12304245,12374205,12475031,and 12364029)the Science Foundation of China University of Petroleum,Beijing(Grant Nos.2462023YJRC031 and 2462024BJRC010)+4 种基金the National Key Laboratory of Petroleum Resources and Engineering(Grant No.PRE/DX-2407)the Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province(Grant No.ZR2024YQ017)the Young Elite Scientist Sponsorship Program by BAST(Grant No.BYESS2023300)the Beijing Institute of Technology Research Fund Program for Young ScholarsThis work was also supported by Beijing National Laboratory for Condensed Matter Physics(Grant Nos.2023BNLCMPKF014 and 2024BNLCMPKF009).
摘要We conduct optical-tweezers experiments to investigate the average potential energies of passive plates harmonically trapped in bacterial suspensions.Our results show that the mean potential energies along both the major and minor axes increase with bacterial concentration but decrease with trap stiffness.Notably,the average potential energy along the major axis consistently exceeds that along the minor axis.This discrepancy from equilibrium systems is primarily attributed to the distinct bacterial flow fields and direct bacterium–plate collisions near the major and minor axes,as evidenced by the higher orientational order around the plate along the major compared to the minor axis,despite identical bacterial densities in these regions.Our findings highlight the critical role of hydrodynamic interactions in determining the potential energy of passive objects immersed in an active bath.
基金supported by the Young Elite Scientist Sponsorship Program by Beijing Association for Science and Technology,China(No.BYESS2023262)the Science Foundation of China University of Petroleum(Beijing),China(No.2462022BJRC004).
摘要Current gas well decline analysis under boundary-dominated flow(BDF)is largely based on the Arps'empirical hyperbolic decline model and the analytical type curve tools associated with pseudo-functions.Due to the nonlinear flow behavior of natural gas,these analysis methods generally require iterative calculations.In this study,the dimensionless gas rate(qg/qgi)is introduced,and an explicit method to determine the average reservoir pressure and the original gas in place(OGIP)for a volumetric gas reservoir is proposed.We show that the dimensionless gas rate in the BDF is only the function of the gas PVT parameters and reservoir pressure.Step-by-step analysis procedures are presented that enable explicit and straightforward estimation of average reservoir pressure and OGIP by straight-line analysis.Compared with current techniques,this methodology avoids the iterative calculation of pseudo-time and pseudo-pressure functions,lowers the multiplicity of type curve analysis,and is applicable in different production situations(constant/variable gas flow rate,constant/variable bottom-hole pressure)with a broad range of applications and ease of use.Reservoir numerical simulation and field examples are thoroughly discussed to highlight the capabilities of the proposed approach.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(61673130).
摘要This paper investigates the sliding-mode-based fixed-time distributed average tracking (DAT) problem for multiple Euler-Lagrange systems in the presence of external distur-bances. The primary objective is to devise controllers for each agent, enabling them to precisely track the average of multiple time-varying reference signals. By averaging these signals, we can mitigate the influence of errors and uncertainties arising dur-ing measurements, thereby enhancing the robustness and stabi-lity of the system. A distributed fixed-time average estimator is proposed to estimate the average value of global reference sig-nals utilizing local information and communication with neigh-bors. Subsequently, a fixed-time sliding mode controller is intro-duced incorporating a state-dependent sliding mode function coupled with a variable exponent coefficient to achieve dis-tributed average tracking of reference signals, and rigorous ana-lytical methods are employed to substantiate the fixed-time sta-bility. Finally, numerical simulation results are provided to vali-date the effectiveness of the proposed methodology, offering insights into its practical application and robust performance.
基金supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(20221017-10,62573258,62188101)the National Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province(ZR2024 JQ018,ZR2022MF227).
摘要The dynamic average consensus(DAC)algorithm is to enable a group of networked agents to track the average of their time-varying reference signals.For most existing DAC algorithms,a necessary assumption is that the upper bounds of the reference signals and their derivatives are known in advance,thereby posing significant challenges in practical scenarios.Introducing adaptive gains in DAC algorithms provides a remedy by relaxing this assumption.However,the current adaptive gains used in this type of DAC algorithms are non-decreasing and may increase to infinity if persist disturbance exists.In order to overcome this defect,this paper presents a novel DAC algorithm with modified adaptive gains.This approach obviates the necessity for prior knowledge concerning the upper bounds of the reference signals and their derivatives.Moreover,the adaptive gains are able to remain bounded even in the presence of external disturbances.Furthermore,the proposed adaptive DAC algorithm is employed to address the distributed secondary control problem of DC microgrids.Comparative case studies are provided to verify the superiority of the proposed DAC algorithm.
基金supported by the Scientific Research Innovation Capability Support Project for Young Faculty(Grant No.ZYGXQNJSKYCXNLZCXM-I3)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2022YFA1604402)+1 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.U23A6002 and 92250307)the Beijing Municipal Science&Technology Commission,Administrative Commission of Zhongguancun Science Park(Grant No.Z251100006925005)。
摘要High-average-power strong-field terahertz(THz)pulses,which are generated via the optical rectification of 100-W average-power ytterbium(Yb)lasers in a nonlinear crystal,have been used to study extreme physical phenomena and realize various applications.However,this THz generation method suffers from a trade-off in which high repetition rates lead to low optical-to-THz energy conversion efficiency,as well as the risk of damage to the crystals under high average pumping power.In this study,we demonstrate a high-averagepower,high-repetition-rate,strong-field THz source in lithium niobate driven by a 1030 nm,1 ps,2 mJ,100 kHz Yb femtosecond laser with a tilted-pulse front-pumping configuration.By characterizing two key experimental parameters,namely the pump spot size and pulse duration,we achieve,to the best of our knowledge,the highest THz average power of 104mW at 100 kHz,with a conversion efficiency of 0.1%and without any cooling operation at room temperature.In addition,a strong electric field of 421 kV/cm is achieved at 1 kHz.Our THz system directly demonstrates its potential capabilities in high-signal-to-noise spectroscopy,imaging,nondestructive testing,and relevant THz applications.
基金financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.U22A20145,52072151,52171211,and 52271218)Jinan Independent Innovative Team(No.2020GXRC015)+3 种基金the Major Program of Shandong Province Natural Science Foundation(No.ZR2023ZD43)Natural Science Foumdation of Jiangsu Province(No.BK20241973)High-level Training Talents of'333'Project in Jiangsu Provincethe Science and Technology Program of University of Jinan(No.XKY2119)
摘要Si,as the most promising anode with high theoretical capacity for next-generation lithium-ion batteries(LIBs),is hampered in commercial application by its poor electrical conductivity and significant volume expansion.Herein,the core-shell Si@SiOx/C@C-Ar(SSC-A)or Si@SiOx/C@C-H2/Ar(SSC-H)composites are purposefully designed by in situ introduction of inorganic SiOxin pure Ar or H2/Ar atmosphere to realize a Si-based anode for LIBs.By introducing different atmospheres,the valence states of SiOxare regulated.The inorganic transition layer formed by the combination of SiOxwith higher average valence and asphalt-derived carbon demonstrates better performance in both stabilizing the core-shell structure and inhibiting the agglomeration of Si particles.Given these advantages,the SSC-A electrode exhibits excellent electrochemical performance(1163 mAh g-1after 400 cycles at 1 A g-1),and the commercial blended graphite-SSC-A electrode reaches a specific capacity of 442 mAh g-1with 74.8%capacity retention under the same conditions.Even the SSC-A electrode without Super P maintains an ultrahigh discharge specific capacity of 803 mAh g-1with 60.6%after cycling.Importantly,the full batteries based on SSC-A without Super P achieve a discharge specific capacity of 126 mAh g-1with 28.2%capacity decay after 200 cycles,demonstrating the superior commercial application potential.
基金the National Science,Research and Innovation Fund(NSRF)King Mongkuts University of Technology North Bangkok under contract no.KMUTNB-FF-68-B-08.
摘要This study aims to examine the explicit solution for calculating the Average Run Length(ARL)on the triple exponentially weighted moving average(TEWMA)control chart applied to autoregressive model(AR(p)),where AR(p)is an autoregressive model of order p,representing a time series with dependencies on its p previous values.Additionally,the study evaluates the accuracy of both explicit and numerical integral equation(NIE)solutions for AR(p)using the TEWMA control chart,focusing on the absolute percentage relative error.The results indicate that the explicit and approximate solutions are in close agreement.Furthermore,the study investigates the performance of exponentially weighted moving average(EWMA)and TEWMA control charts in detecting changes in the process,using the relative mean index(RMI)as a measure.The findings demonstrate that the TEWMA control chart outperforms the EWMA control chart in detecting process changes,especially when the value ofλis sufficiently large.In addition,an analysis using historical data from the SET index between January 2024 and May 2024 and historical data of global annual plastic production,the results of both data sets also emphasize the superior performance of the TEWMA control chart.
基金Project(2024YFB4303300)supported by the National Key R&D Program of ChinaProject(52202429)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(2023JJ40747)supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province,China。
摘要This paper investigates the influence of numerical methods and mesh resolution on the prediction accuracy of the aerodynamic behaviors of a 1/20 scaled generic high-speed train(HST)model.A thorough comparison is made between partially averaged Navier-Stokes(PANS),large eddy simulation(LES),and wind tunnel experiments,covering aerodynamic forces,surface pressure,velocity distribution,and Reynolds stress and turbulent kinetic energy in the wake region.The Reynolds number for both simulations and experiments is set to 4.75×105.The results show that the PANS approach accurately predicts flow characteristics observed in experiments and fine LES calculations,even with a low resolution grid.PANS exhibits a distinct advantage over LES when grid resolutions are insufficient for resolving near wall flow structures around the HST,both in open-air conditions and crosswind environments.Additionally,grid refinement improves the predictive accuracy of the HST's aerodynamic performance,particularly in the presence of small yaw angle.
基金funded by the Ministry of Education of the Russian Federation within the framework of a state assignment,number 1023032300071-6-2.3.1.
摘要Thermal vibrational convection(TVC)refers to the time-averaged convection of a non-isothermal fluid subjected to oscillating force fields.It serves as an effective mechanism for heat transfer control,particularly under microgravity conditions.A key challenge in this field is understanding the effect of rotation on TVC,as fluid oscillations in rotating systems exhibit unique and specific characteristics.In this study,we examine TVC in a vertical flat layer with boundaries at different temperatures,rotating around a horizontal axis.The distinctive feature of this study is that the fluid oscillations within the cavity are not induced by vibrations of the cavity itself,but rather by the gravity field,giving them a tidal nature.Our findings reveal that inertial waves generated in the rotating layer qualitatively alter the TVC structure,producing time-averaged flows in the form of toroidal vortices.Experimental investigations of the structure of oscillatory and time-averaged flows,conducted using Particle Image Velocimetry(PIV)for flow velocity visualization,are complemented by theoretical calculations of inertial modes in a cavity with this geometry.To the best of our knowledge,this study represents the first of its kind.The agreement between experimental results and theoretical predictions confirms that the formation of convective structures in the form of toroidal vortices is driven by inertial waves induced by the gravity field.A decrease in the rotational velocity leads to a transformation of the convective structures,shifting from toroidal vortices of inertial-wave origin to classical cellular TVC.We present dimensionless parameters that define the excitation thresholds for both cellular convection and toroidal structures.
基金Supported by the Academic Achievement Re-cultivation Projects of Jingdezhen Ceramic University(Grant Nos.215/20506341215/20506277)the Doctoral Scientific Research Starting Foundation of Jingdezhen Ceramic University(Grant No.102/01003002031)。
摘要Assume that{ai,−∞<i<∞}is an absolutely summable sequence of real numbers.We establish the complete q-order moment convergence for the partial sums of moving average processes{Xn=Σi=−∞∞aiYi+n,n≥1}under some proper conditions,where{Yi,-∞<i<∞}is a doubly infinite sequence of negatively dependent random variables under sub-linear expectations.These results extend and complement the relevant results in probability space.
基金Supported by the Key Scientific Research Project of Universities in Henan Province,No.21A330004Natural Science Foundation in Henan Province,No.222300420265.
摘要BACKGROUND Hepatitis B(HB)and hepatitis C(HC)place the largest burden in China,and a goal of eliminating them as a major public health threat by 2030 has been set.Making more informed and accurate forecasts of their spread is essential for developing effective strategies,heightening the requirement for early warning to deal with such a major public health threat.AIM To monitor HB and HC epidemics by the design of a paradigmatic seasonal autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average(SARFIMA)for projections into 2030,and to compare the effectiveness with the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average(SARIMA).METHODS Monthly HB and HC incidence cases in China were obtained from January 2004 to June 2023.Descriptive analysis and the Hodrick-Prescott method were employed to identify trends and seasonality.Two periods(from January 2004 to June 2022 and from January 2004 to December 2015,respectively)were used as the training sets to develop both models,while the remaining periods served as the test sets to evaluate the forecasting accuracy.RESULTS There were incidents of 23400874 HB cases and 3590867 HC cases from January 2004 to June 2023.Overall,HB remained steady[average annual percentage change(AAPC)=0.44,95%confidence interval(95%CI):-0.94-1.84]while HC was increasing(AAPC=8.91,95%CI:6.98-10.88),and both had a peak in March and a trough in February.In the 12-step-ahead HB forecast,the mean absolute deviation(15211.94),root mean square error(18762.94),mean absolute percentage error(0.17),mean error rate(0.15),and root mean square percentage error(0.25)under the best SARFIMA(3,0,0)(0,0.449,2)12 were smaller than those under the best SARIMA(3,0,0)(0,1,2)12(16867.71,20775.12,0.19,0.17,and 0.27,respectively).Similar results were also observed for the 90-step-ahead HB,12-step-ahead HC,and 90-step-ahead HC forecasts.The predicted HB incidents totaled 9865400(95%CI:7508093-12222709)cases and HC totaled 1659485(95%CI:856681-2462290)cases during 2023-2030.CONCLUSION Under current interventions,China faces enormous challenges to eliminate HB and HC epidemics by 2030,and effective strategies must be reinforced.The integration of SARFIMA into public health for the management of HB and HC epidemics can potentially result in more informed and efficient interventions,surpassing the capabilities of SARIMA.