期刊文献+
任意字段
题名或关键词
题名
关键词
摘要
作者
第一作者
机构
刊名
分类号
参考文献
作者简介
基金资助
栏目信息
共找到3篇文章
< 1 >
每页显示 20 50 100
已选0条
引用分析
参考文献
引证文献
 统计分析
检索结果
已选文献
显示方式：
Constrained Projection of the Frequency of Compound Hot and Dry Events across Global Land Areas 认领 引用
1
作者 Xinrui LIU Wei LI +2 位作者 Zhenfei TANG Huanhuan ZHU Zhihong JIANG 《Journal of Meteorological Research》 SCIE CSCD 2026年第2期326-340,共15页
Global warming has intensified the risk of compound events,among which compound hot and dry events(CHDEs)have drawn considerable attention due to their high frequency and severe impacts.In this study,based on observat... Global warming has intensified the risk of compound events,among which compound hot and dry events(CHDEs)have drawn considerable attention due to their high frequency and severe impacts.In this study,based on observational data and simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6),we compare the performance of indirect and direct emergent constraint approaches in projecting the frequency of global CHDEs.The results show that by the end of the 21st century,the frequency of CHDEs increases significantly over most global land areas,with the largest increases occurring in North America,South America,and Europe,while the increase is relatively smaller in eastern and southern Asia.Attribution analysis indicates that temperature rise is the primary driver of increased CHDEs frequency,whereas spatial variations in precipitation contribute to regional differences.The indirect constraint,based on global warming magnitude,effectively reduces projection uncertainty in most regions,with the largest reduction in uncertainty range reaching 37.4%(25.4%)for Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSP)5-8.5(SSP2-4.5)scenario.The direct constraint,established using the relationship between historical precipitation trends and future CHDEs frequency,can reduce the uncertainty range by up to 15.99%(14.87%)for SSP5-8.5(SSP2-4.5)scenario.Overall,the indirect constraint demonstrates broader applicability and achieves greater reductions in projection uncertainty compared to the direct constraint. 展开更多
关键词 frequency of compound hot and dry events attribution analysis constraint projection
Detection and Attribution of Changes in Summer Compound Hot and Dry Events over Northeastern China with CMIP6 Models 认领 引用 被引量：11
2
作者 Wei LI Zhihong JIANG +2 位作者 Laurent ZXLI Jing-Jia LUO Panmao ZHAI 《Journal of Meteorological Research》 SCIE CSCD 2022年第1期37-48,共12页
Northeastern China has experienced a significant increase in summer compound hot and dry events(CHDEs),posing a threat to local agricultural production and sustainable development.This study investigates the detectabl... Northeastern China has experienced a significant increase in summer compound hot and dry events(CHDEs),posing a threat to local agricultural production and sustainable development.This study investigates the detectable anthropogenic signal in the long-term trend of CHDE and quantifies the contribution of different external forcings.A probability-based index(PI)is constructed through the joint probability distribution to measure the severity of CHDE,with lower values representing more severe cases.Response of CHDE to external forcing was assessed with simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6(CMIP6).The results show a significant increase in the severity of CHDE over northeastern China during the past decades.The trend of regional averaged PI is-0.28(90%confidence interval:-0.43 to-0.13)per 54 yr and it is well reproduced in the historical forcing simulations.The attribution method of optimal fingerprinting was firstly applied to a two-signal configuration with anthropogenic forcing and natural forcing;the anthropogenic impact was robustly detected and it explains most of the observed trend of PI.Similarly,three-signal analysis further demonstrated that the anthropogenic greenhouse gases dominantly contribute to the observed change,while the anthropogenic aerosol and natural forcing have almost no contribution to the observed changes.For a compound event concurrently exceeding the 95 th percentile of surface air temperature and precipitation reversal in the current period,its likelihood exhibits little change at 1.5℃global warming,but almost doubled at 2.0℃global warming. 展开更多
关键词 compound hot and dry event(CHDE) detection and attribution northeastern China future projection
Bivariate attribution of the compound hot and dry summer of 2022 on the Tibetan Plateau 认领 引用 被引量：7
3
作者 Baiquan ZHOU Panmao ZHAI Zhen LIAO 《Science China Earth Sciences》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2024年第7期2122-2136,共15页
The extraordinarily high temperatures experienced during the summer of 2022 on the Tibetan Plateau(TP)demand attention when compared with its typical climatic conditions.The absence of precipitation alongside the elev... The extraordinarily high temperatures experienced during the summer of 2022 on the Tibetan Plateau(TP)demand attention when compared with its typical climatic conditions.The absence of precipitation alongside the elevated temperatures resulted in 2022 being the hottest and driest summer on record on the TP since at least 1961.Recognizing the susceptibility of the TP to climate change,this study employed large-ensemble simulations from the HadGEM3-A-N216 attribution system,together with a copula-based joint probability distribution,to investigate the influence of anthropogenic forcing,primarily global greenhouse gas emissions,on this unprecedented compound hot and dry event(CHDE).Findings revealed that the return period for the 2022 CHDE on the TP exceeds 4000 years,as determined from the fitted joint distributions derived using observational data spanning 1961-2022.This CHDE was directly linked to large-scale circulation anomalies,including the control of equivalent-barotropic high-pressure anomalies and the northward displacement of the subtropical westerly jet stream.Moreover,anthropogenic forcing has,to some extent,promoted the surface warming and increased variability in precipitation on the TP in summer,establishing conditions conducive for the 2022 CHDE from a long-term climate change perspective.The return period for a 2022-like CHDE on the TP was estimated to be approximately 283 years(142-613 years)by the large ensemble forced by both anthropogenic activities and natural factors.Contrastingly,ensemble simulations driven solely by natural forcing indicated that the likelihood of occurrence of a 2022-like CHDE was almost negligible.These outcomes underscore that the contribution of anthropogenic forcing to the probability of a 2022-like CHDE was 100%,implying that without anthropogenically induced global warming,a comparable CHDE akin to that observed in 2022 on the TP would not be possible. 展开更多
关键词 Compound hot and dry event Tibetan Plateau Bivariate event attribution Anthropogenic forcing
暂未订购 下载PDF
已选0条
引用分析
参考文献
引证文献
 统计分析
检索结果
已选文献
上一页 1 下一页 到第 页
在线咨询 使用帮助 返回顶部 意见反馈