To the Editor:Depression is a major contributor to the global burden of disease and disability,posing a critical public health challenge.Meta-analyses have demonstrated that vitamin D supplementation significantly red...To the Editor:Depression is a major contributor to the global burden of disease and disability,posing a critical public health challenge.Meta-analyses have demonstrated that vitamin D supplementation significantly reduces major depressive symptoms(MDS).1 However,recent large-scale randomised controlled trials(RCTs)2-4 have yielded conflicting evidence,indicating that vitamin D supplementation may not necessarily reduce MDS risk.This discrepancy may be attributed to variations in baseline serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D(25(OH)D)levels,insufficiently characterised doseresponse relationships and uncertain optimal 25(OH)D thresholds.展开更多
Chronic kidney disease(CKD)is a recognized global public health burden affecting over 15%of the general population[1].By 2040,CKD is expected to become the fifth-leading cause of death in the world[2].The neutrophil-t...Chronic kidney disease(CKD)is a recognized global public health burden affecting over 15%of the general population[1].By 2040,CKD is expected to become the fifth-leading cause of death in the world[2].The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio(NLR)indicates local or systemic inflammation status.The NLR has been demonstrated to exhibit predictive value in various pathological conditions,including—but not limited to—pancreatic cancer,as well as macrovascular and microvascular diseases,and sepsis[3,4].展开更多
Understanding Cd contamination in the soil-rice ecosystem and the underlying its threshold and interaction effects is crucial for controlling Cd pollution and ensuring food safety.Although the quantitative relationshi...Understanding Cd contamination in the soil-rice ecosystem and the underlying its threshold and interaction effects is crucial for controlling Cd pollution and ensuring food safety.Although the quantitative relationships between Cd and environmental variables have been extensively studied,the threshold and interaction effects of multi-source environmental variables remain largely unexplored.This study employs a combination of random forest analysis and a human health risk model to investigate the effects of variables on Cd levels in rice grains,with the goal of quantifying their contributions and elucidating their relationships.The results indicated that the 15 selected variables collectively explained 47.36%of the variation in Cd content,with the top three variables being soil pH,distance from industrial park,and soil Zn.The majority of variables exhibited threshold effects on Cd levels in rice grains.By visualizing the interaction between Soil pH,distance from industrial park,and soil Zn with Cd levels in rice,we demonstrate the threshold effects of them on Cd level in rice grains,thereby providing further insight into the variation observed.Furthermore,oral intake of rice has been identified as the primary route of human exposure,significantly contributing to overall exposure pathways.Understanding these interactions is crucial for gaining insights into the underlying processes driving Cd pollution and fostering sustainable development within the industry.Our findings underscore the crucial need to consider multiple environmental variables and their interactions when managing heavy metals(HMs)contamination and mitigating health risks.展开更多
Transforming urban spatial structures to promote green and low-carbon development is an effective strategy.Although prior studies have examined the impact of urban polycentricity on carbon emissions and economic devel...Transforming urban spatial structures to promote green and low-carbon development is an effective strategy.Although prior studies have examined the impact of urban polycentricity on carbon emissions and economic development,research on its role in the synergistic relationship between these factors regarding carbon emission efficiency is limited.Furthermore,existing literature often overlooks nonlinear effects and interactions with other urban variables.This paper analyzed data from 295 Chinese cities in 2020,calculating urban population polycentricity,population dispersion indices,and carbon emission efficiency.Utilizing local spatial autocorrelation tools,we reveal interactions among urban population polycentricity,dispersion,carbon emissions,and carbon emission efficiency.We then employ a gradient boosting decision tree model(GBDT)to explore nonlinear and synergistic effects of polycentric urbanization.Key findings include:1)polycentric urbanization in Chinese cities exhibits significant spatial differentiation characteristics.The Polycentricity index is relatively high in economically developed eastern coastal regions with an overall low level,carbon emissions are concentrated in industrialized north-central cities and some Yangtze River Delta hubs,and carbon emission efficiency is the highest in the Yangtze River Delta while relatively low in Northeast China;there are significant spatially heterogeneous interaction characteristics among population polycentricity,population dispersion,carbon emissions,and carbon emission efficiency.2)Urban population polycentricity contributes 9.42%to total carbon emissions and 6.24%to carbon emission efficiency.3)The polycentricity index has a nonlinear impact on carbon emissions and carbon emission efficiency:no significant effect when below 0.50 or above 0.55,increased carbon emissions in 0.50-0.53,and reduced carbon emissions with improved efficiency in 0.53-0.55.4)The polycentricity index has an interaction effect with other variables;specifically,when the polycentricity index is between 0.53 and 0.55,its interaction with urban gross domestic product(GDP),urban population,urban built-up area,green coverage rate in built-up areas,urban technological expenditure,and the proportion of the output value of the secondary industry will reduce carbon emissions and improve carbon emission efficiency.These findings enhance the understanding of urban spatial structures and carbon emissions,providing valuable insights for policymakers in developing green and low-carbon strategies.展开更多
Dryland biodiversity–productivity relationships remain poorly resolved.Specifically,the environmental conditions governing the shift between complementarity and mass ratio mechanisms remain unclear,limiting the effec...Dryland biodiversity–productivity relationships remain poorly resolved.Specifically,the environmental conditions governing the shift between complementarity and mass ratio mechanisms remain unclear,limiting the effectiveness of restoration and management strategies.To address this gap,the aim of this study was to investigate the geographical patterns of diversity and biomass production in herbaceous communities along a 2100-km precipitation gradient in North China.We studied howα-andβ-diversity affect community-wide productivity using linear mixed-effects models and piecewise structural equation models,along with rolling-window change-point analyses.In arid regions,biomass productivity was primarily driven by interspecificniche complementarity,where higher functional diversity(FD(α))enhanced resource-use efficiency.However,in semi-arid regions,productivity was regulated by the mass ratio effect,specificallythrough the traits of dominant species,including community weighted mean height and specificleaf area,as these species exploited broader resource spectra with increasing water availability.A critical mechanistic shift occurred at a mean annual precipitation(MAP)threshold of~168 mm(95%CI:152–171 mm;p<0.001).Below this threshold,productivity was driven by diversity-mediated complementarity and stress tolerant strategies.Conversely,as MAP surpassed 168 mm,the system transitioned to mass ratio control,coincident with a shift toward competitive strategies.Overall,our study provides empirical evidence to guide dryland management:prioritising the maintenance of functional diversity in arid communities,while emphasising dominant-trait optimisation(plant height and specificleaf area)in semi-arid communities to maximise aboveground biomass.展开更多
Amid accelerating global land degradation,establishing high-efficiency ecological restoration principles and frameworks is crucial.Here,we explore the application of threshold effects in the ecological restoration pro...Amid accelerating global land degradation,establishing high-efficiency ecological restoration principles and frameworks is crucial.Here,we explore the application of threshold effects in the ecological restoration process based on field experiments and globally available experimental data from 173 sites.Combining data integration analysis and meta-analysis,we collectively verified the universality of threshold effects in grasslands.The global grasslands’average nitrogen application threshold is 3.78 g·m-2·yr−1,while the threshold value of degraded grassland(3.65 g·m-2·yr−1)is lower than that of nondegraded grassland(5.90 g·m-2·yr−1).The low nitrogen-driven thresholds are affected by degradation status,climate(precipitation and temperature),and other site conditions,but not fertilization forms.Independent experiments further demonstrated that an increase in soil moisture content can lead to the disappearance of nitrogen threshold effects,revealing that ecological threshold effects are influenced by ecosystem stress factors.Following the significant increase in plant biomass triggered by the nitrogen threshold,the ecosystem undergoes systemic improvement.Soil organic carbon,urease activity,soil microbial diversity,and other soil properties are significantly enhanced.Soil nitrogen cycle-related microbial communities and soil physicochemical attributes are significantly activated.The results indicate that a threshold response pattern may develop before nitrogen saturation is reached,and low nitrogen input can boost productivity and improve the plant-soil-microbe system.Our findings reveal a nonprogressive path of restoration in degraded ecosystems,and thus,restoration based on threshold effects can offer an efficient and safe solution to combat ecological degradation.展开更多
Economic theory posits numerous channels through which FDI might create positive spillovers for domestic firms. However, the results of empirical studies that have sought to document these spillovers have been mixed. ...Economic theory posits numerous channels through which FDI might create positive spillovers for domestic firms. However, the results of empirical studies that have sought to document these spillovers have been mixed. One explanation for this variation is that the capacity of domestic firms to absorb spillovers might vary. In the present paper, we explore these issues in the case of China. ,4side from being one of the world's leading hosts offoreign direct investment, China makes for an interesting case study because its provinces vary greatly with respect to those factors most commonly held to influence absorptive capacity, such as the initial level of technology in domestic firms. This paper begins by empirically establishing that the spillovers from foreign direct investment do indeed vary across provinces. Threshold values for varioas factors that influence absorptive capacity factors are then estimated and it is found that conditions in many provinces presently fall short of these values. This provides an obvious focus of attention for China's policy-makers.展开更多
Infertility,defined as the inability to achieve a clinical pregnancy after 1 year of unprotected and regular sexual intercourse,affects approximately 8%–12%of couples worldwide during their childbearing years.Assiste...Infertility,defined as the inability to achieve a clinical pregnancy after 1 year of unprotected and regular sexual intercourse,affects approximately 8%–12%of couples worldwide during their childbearing years.Assisted reproductive technology(ART)offers interventions to facilitate conception in couples with infertility.Since the inception of traditional in vitro fertilization(IVF)in 1978,ART has facilitated the birth of millions of infants.Intracytoplasmic sperm injection(ICSI)is an effective technique for couples ineligible for traditional IVF.Individual female factors,such as age and endometrial thickness,have been shown to affect embryo development during the IVF process,resulting in unfavorable pregnancy outcomes[1-3].However,the influence of environmental and male factors on early reproductive outcomes cannot be ignored.As a novel form of environmental pollution,light at night(LAN)has intensified with the rapid pace of urbanization,potentially leading to reproductive health problems in both women and men.However,to our knowledge,no study has explored the effects of LAN exposure on the early reproductive outcomes of IVF.Furthermore,the normal development of embryos relies on the contributions of both partners,and the influence of male factors on the early reproductive outcomes of IVF should not be overlooked.展开更多
Ecosystem services(ESs)are an important bridge coupling the natural environment and human society.The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau(QTP),as an ecological barrier in China and even in Asia,plays a key role in maintaining reg...Ecosystem services(ESs)are an important bridge coupling the natural environment and human society.The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau(QTP),as an ecological barrier in China and even in Asia,plays a key role in maintaining regional ecological security and sustainable supply of water resources.However,there is limited research of determining thresholds and zoning on ESs over long periods of time.This study took the QTP as study region,analyzed the characteristics of spatial and temporal variations of ESs,determined the impact thresholds of precipitation(Pre),temperature(Tem),evapotranspiration(ET)and Fractional Vegetation Cover(FVC)on ESs,and identified the ecological priority area(EPA)of the QTP.The results showed that all ESs increased of different degrees from 2000 to 2022.The coefficient of variation(CV)of water yield(WY),haibitat quality(HQ),carbon storage(CS),soil retention(SR),climate regulation(CR)and food supply(FS)was 0.32,0.18,0.12,0.2,0.21 and 0.15.Based on the impact thresholds of Pre,Tem,ET and FVC on ESs,EPA of each ES was identified.The EPA of WY,HQ,CS,SR,CR and FS was 95×104km2,74×104km2,47×104km2,64×104km2,80×104km2and 92×104km2,which provided theoretical support for the ecological restoration and sustainable development of the QTP.展开更多
Mitigating urban heat island effects is crucial for sustainable urban development,yet the spatial nonlinear and threshold effects of urban factors on land surface temperature(LST)remain poorly understood.To address th...Mitigating urban heat island effects is crucial for sustainable urban development,yet the spatial nonlinear and threshold effects of urban factors on land surface temperature(LST)remain poorly understood.To address this,an interpretable spatial machine-learning framework is developed by integrating geographically weighted machine learning models with Shapley Additive exPlanations.Using Shenzhen,China,as a case study,the proposed framework is validated.The effects of three categories of urban factors are examined,including urban morphology,land cover,and human and social activities.Results show that under geographically weighted coupling,the eXtreme Gradient Boosting model outperforms both multiple linear regression and random forest models.Results indicate that the impacts of urban factors on LST vary across time,and the human and social activities exert the greatest impact on diurnal LST across Shenzhen.Threshold analysis indicates that building heights above 13 m increase cooling effects during daytime.Building coverage ratios exceeding 0.2 exacerbate warming effects,highlighting the need for green infrastructure mitigation.High surface albedo areas experiencing daytime warming may benefit from the reduced use of heat-retaining material.The pervious surface fraction exceeding 0.3 would enhance cooling throughout the diurnal cycle.Furthermore,population density and gross domestic product significantly amplify warming effects beyond thresholds of 5497 persons/km2 and 551.7 billion CNY/km2,respectively.These findings highlight the importance of threshold-based urban planning strategies for balancing daytime cooling and nighttime heat retention,providing valuable insights for sustainable urban development.展开更多
Questions persist on the relationship between tourism dependence and economic growth in ethnic tourism areas.This study addresses such gaps by constructing a threshold regression model based on socio-economic data fro...Questions persist on the relationship between tourism dependence and economic growth in ethnic tourism areas.This study addresses such gaps by constructing a threshold regression model based on socio-economic data from 2006 to 2019 for nine sites in Enshi Prefecture of central China.Arc GIS and other open-source data were also used to visualize changing tourism resources in the region.Findings suggest that tourism dependence(the ratio of tourism-based GDP to overall GDP)significantly promotes economic growth in ethnic minority areas.However,the positive influence of tourism dependence on economic growth appears dynamic and non-linear–rising at first before falling when tourism dependence exceeded a threshold of 34%,with effects varying by site and year.Methods and findings make crucial theoretical contributions to understanding tourism dependence and poverty alleviation linkages.This paper also highlights the importance of political support and balanced investment in diverse industries to minimize decreasing returns beyond tourism dependence thresholds in destinations worldwide.展开更多
Objective The benefits of caffeine to human health have been widely reported,but the association between caffeine intake and mortality among patients with chronic kidney disease(CKD)has been rarely reported in large e...Objective The benefits of caffeine to human health have been widely reported,but the association between caffeine intake and mortality among patients with chronic kidney disease(CKD)has been rarely reported in large epidemiologic studies.This study aimed to investigate the association between caffeine intake and mortality among CKD patients.Methods Our study was conducted among non-dialysis CKD patients in the 2003-2016 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey(NHANES).Weighted COX regression analysis was used to explore the linear relationship between caffeine intake and mortality among CKD patients(including all-cause mortality,as well as mortality due to cardiovascular disease,cancer,cerebrovascular disease,nephropathy,and influenza or pneumonia).Restricted cubic spline analysis was performed to explore the nonlinear relationship.Finally,threshold effects were analyzed through fitting a two-piecewise linear regression model.Results In a fully adjusted model,no significant linear association was found between caffeine intake and mortality.How-ever,there was a U-shaped association between caffeine intake and all-cause mortality(inflection point:277 mg).Moreover,there was a J-shaped association between caffeine intake and cardiovascular mortality(inflection point:252 mg)and cancer mortality(inflection point:79 mg).Conclusion All-cause mortality was reduced in CKD patients when caffeine intake was less than 277 mg(about 1.85 cups of Americano).However,excessive caffeine intake was associated with increased all-cause mortality,cardiovascular mortality and cancer mortality in this population.展开更多
The development of Ivorian public debt in recent years has raised concerns.Is its current level capable of boosting the economy or,on the contrary,being at the source of a recession?This paper analyzes the effect of t...The development of Ivorian public debt in recent years has raised concerns.Is its current level capable of boosting the economy or,on the contrary,being at the source of a recession?This paper analyzes the effect of the level of indebtedness on economic growth in Côte d’Ivoire using the Threshold Autoregressive(TAR)model over the period 1970-2018.The results obtained in the short run shed light on the no relationship between public debt and economic growth.In the long run,on the other hand,there is a bi-directional granger causality between public debt and the sustainability of economic growth.The non-linearity between the variables of interest has been studied and the results show the presence of a threshold effect:beyond 48.03 percent of GDP,any increase in public debt by 1%should reduce economic growth by 0.28%.Thus,the study questions the relevance of the criterion set by the WAEMU:public debt<70%of GDP.展开更多
Utilizing provincial panel data from 2014 to 2020,this study employs a fixed effect model,a threshold effect model,and a spatial lag model to empirically examine the correlation between digital economic development an...Utilizing provincial panel data from 2014 to 2020,this study employs a fixed effect model,a threshold effect model,and a spatial lag model to empirically examine the correlation between digital economic development and carbon productivity.The findings indicate that digital economic development significantly contributes to the enhancement of carbon productivity in the long term.Furthermore,through instrumental variable method,replacement of explanatory variables and other methods to test its endogeneity and stability,the results remain robust.In terms of regional heterogeneity,the impact of digital economic development on carbon productivity is less pronounced in the central and western regions compared to the eastern region.Additionally,further investigation reveals that industrial structure upgrading and science and technology investment level exhibit different threshold effects on the influence of digital economy development level on carbon productivity.Moreover,there is a significant spatial spillover effect of digital economy development on carbon productivity with H-H and L-L agglomeration spatial correlation.展开更多
Objective To study the threshold effect of export trade on internal and external R&D investment in China’s pharmaceutical industry,and to provide reference for some pharmaceutical enterprises to improve the inves...Objective To study the threshold effect of export trade on internal and external R&D investment in China’s pharmaceutical industry,and to provide reference for some pharmaceutical enterprises to improve the investment.Methods The panel data of pharmaceutical industry in 25 provinces and cities in China from 2009 to 2019 were selected to conduct empirical analysis by establishing a threshold regression model,and a better export trade interval was obtained.Results and Conclusion There is a threshold value for the effect of new product export on both internal and external R&D expenditures,and the threshold values are 845.2788 million yuan and 318.4198 million yuan,respectively.There is a single threshold effect of export trade on both internal and external R&D investment in China’s pharmaceutical industry,and the effect of export trade on internal and external R&D investment changes from negative to positive as the export trade develops from low to high.展开更多
Economic growth and environmental pollution have become the bases of geopolitical competition due to the multiple constraints of growth in energy consumption and environmental protection in recent decades.Whether the ...Economic growth and environmental pollution have become the bases of geopolitical competition due to the multiple constraints of growth in energy consumption and environmental protection in recent decades.Whether the coordinated development of inward foreign direct investment(IFDI)and outward foreign direct investment(OFDI)promote economic growth while reducing environmental pollution and realizing high-quality development affects the overall socialist modernization under China’s“Dual Circulation”policy.Using China’s provincial panel data from 2005 to 2020,this paper first measured green total factor productivity(GTFP)and the coordinated development index(CDIFDI)of IFDI and OFDI via the slacks-based measureglobal Malmquist–Luenberger(SBM-GML)model and the capacity coupling model.A panel threshold model with interactive effects(PTIFEs)was then applied to explore the nonlinear impact of the CDIFDI on China’s GTFP.Finally,a regional heterogeneity analysis was conducted for China’s eastern,central and western regions of China.Results show that(1)GTFP in China kept rising with small fluctuations during the sample period,with the increasing range of GTFP decreasing from east to west.(2)CDIFDI had a significant“U”-shaped threshold effect on GTFP,and the main threshold variables were the industrial structure and the level of economic development.(3)CDIFDI played a positive role in promoting GTFP growth in the eastern region,while the effects of CDIFDI on GTFP in the central and western regions were not significant.Policy-makers and enterprises should comprehensively consider promoting regional industrial upgrading and economic growth to achieve a greater positive impact of CDIFDI on GTFP.Scientifically measuring GTFP and exploring the nonlinear impact of the CDIFDI on GTFP and regional heterogeneity provide helpful references for policy-makers to coordinate the high-quality development of regional economies.展开更多
Shandong’s TFP growth is higher than Chinese average,but the growth rate has slowed in recent years,appearing the phenomenon that the growth momentum of Shandong’s TFP is insufficient.Using DEA-Malmquist Index to me...Shandong’s TFP growth is higher than Chinese average,but the growth rate has slowed in recent years,appearing the phenomenon that the growth momentum of Shandong’s TFP is insufficient.Using DEA-Malmquist Index to measure Shandong’s TFP growth rate,empirical research from the perspective of financial development finds that financial scale,efficiency of financial institutions,fiscal intervention,and scale of foreign capital utilization have significant nonlinear effects on the growth of TFP.Furtherly,through threshold analysis,the efficiency of financial institutions has a significant threshold effect on TFP growth.Financial scale and fiscal intervention are the main core variables that affect the growth of TFP under the threshold effect,and they have the same effect direction on TFP before and after the threshold value.However,the effect intensity of these two core variables on TFP is different.展开更多
Objectives To observe the effect of β3-Adrenoceptor (AR) on ventricle fibrillation threshold (VFT) and effective refractory period (ERP) in rats with heart failure. Methods Rats were randomized into control gro...Objectives To observe the effect of β3-Adrenoceptor (AR) on ventricle fibrillation threshold (VFT) and effective refractory period (ERP) in rats with heart failure. Methods Rats were randomized into control group and heart failure group. The expression of β3-ARmRNA was detected with RTPCR; The VFT, ERP, LVESP,LVEDP, +dp/dtmax and -dp/dtmax was measured at the same time with administration of BRL37344 ( 2 nmol / kg, β3- AR agonist). Results ①Both the expression of β3-AR mRNA and the proportion increased in rats with heart failure in comparison with control rats (0.028 vs. 0.011 and 5.4% vs 1.2%, P 〈 0.05);② ERP was longer in rats with heart failure than control group (70.5±5.5 ms vs 59.5±6.4ms, P 〈 0.05) and there was no difference of ERP in rats with heart failure with administration of BRL37344 (73.0±4.8 ms vs 70.5± 5.5 ms, P 〉0.05); ③VFT was lower in rats with heart failure than control group(10.9±0.8 mv vs 30.5± 1.3 mv, P〈 0.05) and decreased obviously in rats with heart failure with administration of BRL37344 (7.1±0.6 mv vs 10.9±0.8 mv, P 〈 0.05) ; The decrease of VFT correlated with the effect on LVESP, +dp/ dtmax,-dp/dtmax of BRL37344 and the expression of β3-AR mRNA (correlation coefficient: 0.788, 0.708, 0.759, 0.787; P 〈 0.05). Conclusions The expression of β3-AR mRNA of left ventricle was obviously increased in rats with heart failure, and activation of β3-AR had no effect on ERP but could decreased VFT which correlated with the effect of β3-AR on LVESP, +dp/dtmax, -dp/dtmax and the expression of β3-AR mRNA.展开更多
China’s growing trade with countries along the“Belt and Road”Initiative is accompanied by a focus on green development.Based on the panel data from 2007 to 2018,this paper establishes a threshold regression model t...China’s growing trade with countries along the“Belt and Road”Initiative is accompanied by a focus on green development.Based on the panel data from 2007 to 2018,this paper establishes a threshold regression model to empirically analyze the institutional quality threshold effect of China’s foreign trade technology spillover on the GTFP of countries along the“Belt and Road.”The results show that China’s foreign trade technology spillover has a significant institutional quality double threshold effect on the green total factor productivity of the countries along the“Belt and Road.”As the institutional quality of the countries along the“Belt and Road”crosses a specific threshold value,the impact of China’s foreign trade technology spillover on the green total factor productivity of the countries along the“Belt and Road”has a significant positive promoting effect,and corresponding suggestions are put forward.展开更多
Based on China's provincial panel data from 2004 to 2014,the net effect and threshold characteristics of local governments' fiscal expenditure structure on environmental pollution were tested with the nonlinear pane...Based on China's provincial panel data from 2004 to 2014,the net effect and threshold characteristics of local governments' fiscal expenditure structure on environmental pollution were tested with the nonlinear panel threshold model. The results showed that the net effect of fiscal expenditure structure on regional pollution emission intensity had significant inverted V-shaped single threshold characteristics. Besides,the threshold value of economic density was 6. 039 6 million yuan/km^2,and that of population density was 201 people/km^2. That is,the fiscal expenditure structure inclining to productive expenditure was relatively conducive to the promotion of pollution reduction in the areas with low economic density or low population density. The fiscal expenditure structure inclining to non-productive expenditure was relatively conducive to the promotion of pollution reduction in the areas with high economic density or high population density.展开更多
基金supported by the Brain Science and Brain-like Intelligence Technology-National Science and Technology Major Project(2021ZD0200600)
摘要To the Editor:Depression is a major contributor to the global burden of disease and disability,posing a critical public health challenge.Meta-analyses have demonstrated that vitamin D supplementation significantly reduces major depressive symptoms(MDS).1 However,recent large-scale randomised controlled trials(RCTs)2-4 have yielded conflicting evidence,indicating that vitamin D supplementation may not necessarily reduce MDS risk.This discrepancy may be attributed to variations in baseline serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D(25(OH)D)levels,insufficiently characterised doseresponse relationships and uncertain optimal 25(OH)D thresholds.
基金supported by the Hunan Province Key Field R&D Program(Grant no.2020SK2097)Key Research and Development Project of Hunan Province(Grant no.2020SK2089)+1 种基金the Wisdom Accumulation and Talent Cultivation Project of the Third Xiangya Hospital of Central South University(Grant no.YX202212)Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of Central South University(Grant No.2023ZZTS0839).
摘要Chronic kidney disease(CKD)is a recognized global public health burden affecting over 15%of the general population[1].By 2040,CKD is expected to become the fifth-leading cause of death in the world[2].The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio(NLR)indicates local or systemic inflammation status.The NLR has been demonstrated to exhibit predictive value in various pathological conditions,including—but not limited to—pancreatic cancer,as well as macrovascular and microvascular diseases,and sepsis[3,4].
基金supported by the GDAS’Project of Science and Technology Development(No.2022GDASZH-2022010104-2)Guangdong Major Project of Basic and Applied Basic Research(No.2023B0303000006).
摘要Understanding Cd contamination in the soil-rice ecosystem and the underlying its threshold and interaction effects is crucial for controlling Cd pollution and ensuring food safety.Although the quantitative relationships between Cd and environmental variables have been extensively studied,the threshold and interaction effects of multi-source environmental variables remain largely unexplored.This study employs a combination of random forest analysis and a human health risk model to investigate the effects of variables on Cd levels in rice grains,with the goal of quantifying their contributions and elucidating their relationships.The results indicated that the 15 selected variables collectively explained 47.36%of the variation in Cd content,with the top three variables being soil pH,distance from industrial park,and soil Zn.The majority of variables exhibited threshold effects on Cd levels in rice grains.By visualizing the interaction between Soil pH,distance from industrial park,and soil Zn with Cd levels in rice,we demonstrate the threshold effects of them on Cd level in rice grains,thereby providing further insight into the variation observed.Furthermore,oral intake of rice has been identified as the primary route of human exposure,significantly contributing to overall exposure pathways.Understanding these interactions is crucial for gaining insights into the underlying processes driving Cd pollution and fostering sustainable development within the industry.Our findings underscore the crucial need to consider multiple environmental variables and their interactions when managing heavy metals(HMs)contamination and mitigating health risks.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42571300)。
摘要Transforming urban spatial structures to promote green and low-carbon development is an effective strategy.Although prior studies have examined the impact of urban polycentricity on carbon emissions and economic development,research on its role in the synergistic relationship between these factors regarding carbon emission efficiency is limited.Furthermore,existing literature often overlooks nonlinear effects and interactions with other urban variables.This paper analyzed data from 295 Chinese cities in 2020,calculating urban population polycentricity,population dispersion indices,and carbon emission efficiency.Utilizing local spatial autocorrelation tools,we reveal interactions among urban population polycentricity,dispersion,carbon emissions,and carbon emission efficiency.We then employ a gradient boosting decision tree model(GBDT)to explore nonlinear and synergistic effects of polycentric urbanization.Key findings include:1)polycentric urbanization in Chinese cities exhibits significant spatial differentiation characteristics.The Polycentricity index is relatively high in economically developed eastern coastal regions with an overall low level,carbon emissions are concentrated in industrialized north-central cities and some Yangtze River Delta hubs,and carbon emission efficiency is the highest in the Yangtze River Delta while relatively low in Northeast China;there are significant spatially heterogeneous interaction characteristics among population polycentricity,population dispersion,carbon emissions,and carbon emission efficiency.2)Urban population polycentricity contributes 9.42%to total carbon emissions and 6.24%to carbon emission efficiency.3)The polycentricity index has a nonlinear impact on carbon emissions and carbon emission efficiency:no significant effect when below 0.50 or above 0.55,increased carbon emissions in 0.50-0.53,and reduced carbon emissions with improved efficiency in 0.53-0.55.4)The polycentricity index has an interaction effect with other variables;specifically,when the polycentricity index is between 0.53 and 0.55,its interaction with urban gross domestic product(GDP),urban population,urban built-up area,green coverage rate in built-up areas,urban technological expenditure,and the proportion of the output value of the secondary industry will reduce carbon emissions and improve carbon emission efficiency.These findings enhance the understanding of urban spatial structures and carbon emissions,providing valuable insights for policymakers in developing green and low-carbon strategies.
摘要Dryland biodiversity–productivity relationships remain poorly resolved.Specifically,the environmental conditions governing the shift between complementarity and mass ratio mechanisms remain unclear,limiting the effectiveness of restoration and management strategies.To address this gap,the aim of this study was to investigate the geographical patterns of diversity and biomass production in herbaceous communities along a 2100-km precipitation gradient in North China.We studied howα-andβ-diversity affect community-wide productivity using linear mixed-effects models and piecewise structural equation models,along with rolling-window change-point analyses.In arid regions,biomass productivity was primarily driven by interspecificniche complementarity,where higher functional diversity(FD(α))enhanced resource-use efficiency.However,in semi-arid regions,productivity was regulated by the mass ratio effect,specificallythrough the traits of dominant species,including community weighted mean height and specificleaf area,as these species exploited broader resource spectra with increasing water availability.A critical mechanistic shift occurred at a mean annual precipitation(MAP)threshold of~168 mm(95%CI:152–171 mm;p<0.001).Below this threshold,productivity was driven by diversity-mediated complementarity and stress tolerant strategies.Conversely,as MAP surpassed 168 mm,the system transitioned to mass ratio control,coincident with a shift toward competitive strategies.Overall,our study provides empirical evidence to guide dryland management:prioritising the maintenance of functional diversity in arid communities,while emphasising dominant-trait optimisation(plant height and specificleaf area)in semi-arid communities to maximise aboveground biomass.
基金supported by the Major Special Projects of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grants No.52374170 and 42377465)the Third Comprehensive Scientific Exploration in Xinjiang(Grant No.2022xjkk1005)+1 种基金the Special Technology Innovation Fund of Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality in Jiangsu Province(Grant No.BK20231515)the Shaanxi Shenmu Natural Field Observation and Research Station of Erosion and Environment,which provided the site and data on experimental conditions for field trials.
摘要Amid accelerating global land degradation,establishing high-efficiency ecological restoration principles and frameworks is crucial.Here,we explore the application of threshold effects in the ecological restoration process based on field experiments and globally available experimental data from 173 sites.Combining data integration analysis and meta-analysis,we collectively verified the universality of threshold effects in grasslands.The global grasslands’average nitrogen application threshold is 3.78 g·m-2·yr−1,while the threshold value of degraded grassland(3.65 g·m-2·yr−1)is lower than that of nondegraded grassland(5.90 g·m-2·yr−1).The low nitrogen-driven thresholds are affected by degradation status,climate(precipitation and temperature),and other site conditions,but not fertilization forms.Independent experiments further demonstrated that an increase in soil moisture content can lead to the disappearance of nitrogen threshold effects,revealing that ecological threshold effects are influenced by ecosystem stress factors.Following the significant increase in plant biomass triggered by the nitrogen threshold,the ecosystem undergoes systemic improvement.Soil organic carbon,urease activity,soil microbial diversity,and other soil properties are significantly enhanced.Soil nitrogen cycle-related microbial communities and soil physicochemical attributes are significantly activated.The results indicate that a threshold response pattern may develop before nitrogen saturation is reached,and low nitrogen input can boost productivity and improve the plant-soil-microbe system.Our findings reveal a nonprogressive path of restoration in degraded ecosystems,and thus,restoration based on threshold effects can offer an efficient and safe solution to combat ecological degradation.
摘要Economic theory posits numerous channels through which FDI might create positive spillovers for domestic firms. However, the results of empirical studies that have sought to document these spillovers have been mixed. One explanation for this variation is that the capacity of domestic firms to absorb spillovers might vary. In the present paper, we explore these issues in the case of China. ,4side from being one of the world's leading hosts offoreign direct investment, China makes for an interesting case study because its provinces vary greatly with respect to those factors most commonly held to influence absorptive capacity, such as the initial level of technology in domestic firms. This paper begins by empirically establishing that the spillovers from foreign direct investment do indeed vary across provinces. Threshold values for varioas factors that influence absorptive capacity factors are then estimated and it is found that conditions in many provinces presently fall short of these values. This provides an obvious focus of attention for China's policy-makers.
基金supported by grants from the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2018YFC1004201)National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.82473642)+3 种基金Research Funds of the Center for Big Data and Population Health of IHM(No.JKS2023017)Natural Science Foundation of Anhui Province(No.2408085QH278)Research Fund of the Anhui Institute of Translational Medicine(No.2022zhyx-C05)Anhui Medical University National Undergraduate Innovation and Entrepreneurship Training Program(No.S202410366070).
摘要Infertility,defined as the inability to achieve a clinical pregnancy after 1 year of unprotected and regular sexual intercourse,affects approximately 8%–12%of couples worldwide during their childbearing years.Assisted reproductive technology(ART)offers interventions to facilitate conception in couples with infertility.Since the inception of traditional in vitro fertilization(IVF)in 1978,ART has facilitated the birth of millions of infants.Intracytoplasmic sperm injection(ICSI)is an effective technique for couples ineligible for traditional IVF.Individual female factors,such as age and endometrial thickness,have been shown to affect embryo development during the IVF process,resulting in unfavorable pregnancy outcomes[1-3].However,the influence of environmental and male factors on early reproductive outcomes cannot be ignored.As a novel form of environmental pollution,light at night(LAN)has intensified with the rapid pace of urbanization,potentially leading to reproductive health problems in both women and men.However,to our knowledge,no study has explored the effects of LAN exposure on the early reproductive outcomes of IVF.Furthermore,the normal development of embryos relies on the contributions of both partners,and the influence of male factors on the early reproductive outcomes of IVF should not be overlooked.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2024YFF1306204)the National Science Foundation For Distinguished Young Scholars(42425107)+1 种基金the Top Talent Project of Gansu province,Chinese Academy of Sciences Young Crossover Team Project(JCTD-2022-18)Lanzhou Talent-Driven City Development Initiative.
摘要Ecosystem services(ESs)are an important bridge coupling the natural environment and human society.The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau(QTP),as an ecological barrier in China and even in Asia,plays a key role in maintaining regional ecological security and sustainable supply of water resources.However,there is limited research of determining thresholds and zoning on ESs over long periods of time.This study took the QTP as study region,analyzed the characteristics of spatial and temporal variations of ESs,determined the impact thresholds of precipitation(Pre),temperature(Tem),evapotranspiration(ET)and Fractional Vegetation Cover(FVC)on ESs,and identified the ecological priority area(EPA)of the QTP.The results showed that all ESs increased of different degrees from 2000 to 2022.The coefficient of variation(CV)of water yield(WY),haibitat quality(HQ),carbon storage(CS),soil retention(SR),climate regulation(CR)and food supply(FS)was 0.32,0.18,0.12,0.2,0.21 and 0.15.Based on the impact thresholds of Pre,Tem,ET and FVC on ESs,EPA of each ES was identified.The EPA of WY,HQ,CS,SR,CR and FS was 95×104km2,74×104km2,47×104km2,64×104km2,80×104km2and 92×104km2,which provided theoretical support for the ecological restoration and sustainable development of the QTP.
基金support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52578137 and No.52278117)Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(No.2024A1515011549)Shenzhen Science and Technology Program(No.20240813143330039).
摘要Mitigating urban heat island effects is crucial for sustainable urban development,yet the spatial nonlinear and threshold effects of urban factors on land surface temperature(LST)remain poorly understood.To address this,an interpretable spatial machine-learning framework is developed by integrating geographically weighted machine learning models with Shapley Additive exPlanations.Using Shenzhen,China,as a case study,the proposed framework is validated.The effects of three categories of urban factors are examined,including urban morphology,land cover,and human and social activities.Results show that under geographically weighted coupling,the eXtreme Gradient Boosting model outperforms both multiple linear regression and random forest models.Results indicate that the impacts of urban factors on LST vary across time,and the human and social activities exert the greatest impact on diurnal LST across Shenzhen.Threshold analysis indicates that building heights above 13 m increase cooling effects during daytime.Building coverage ratios exceeding 0.2 exacerbate warming effects,highlighting the need for green infrastructure mitigation.High surface albedo areas experiencing daytime warming may benefit from the reduced use of heat-retaining material.The pervious surface fraction exceeding 0.3 would enhance cooling throughout the diurnal cycle.Furthermore,population density and gross domestic product significantly amplify warming effects beyond thresholds of 5497 persons/km2 and 551.7 billion CNY/km2,respectively.These findings highlight the importance of threshold-based urban planning strategies for balancing daytime cooling and nighttime heat retention,providing valuable insights for sustainable urban development.
基金funded by the National Social Science Foundation of China(Grant No.20CMZ033)。
摘要Questions persist on the relationship between tourism dependence and economic growth in ethnic tourism areas.This study addresses such gaps by constructing a threshold regression model based on socio-economic data from 2006 to 2019 for nine sites in Enshi Prefecture of central China.Arc GIS and other open-source data were also used to visualize changing tourism resources in the region.Findings suggest that tourism dependence(the ratio of tourism-based GDP to overall GDP)significantly promotes economic growth in ethnic minority areas.However,the positive influence of tourism dependence on economic growth appears dynamic and non-linear–rising at first before falling when tourism dependence exceeded a threshold of 34%,with effects varying by site and year.Methods and findings make crucial theoretical contributions to understanding tourism dependence and poverty alleviation linkages.This paper also highlights the importance of political support and balanced investment in diverse industries to minimize decreasing returns beyond tourism dependence thresholds in destinations worldwide.
基金supported by a grant from the Chinese Cardiovascular Association-Natural Lipid-Lowering Drugs Fund(No.2023-CCA-NLD-742).
摘要Objective The benefits of caffeine to human health have been widely reported,but the association between caffeine intake and mortality among patients with chronic kidney disease(CKD)has been rarely reported in large epidemiologic studies.This study aimed to investigate the association between caffeine intake and mortality among CKD patients.Methods Our study was conducted among non-dialysis CKD patients in the 2003-2016 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey(NHANES).Weighted COX regression analysis was used to explore the linear relationship between caffeine intake and mortality among CKD patients(including all-cause mortality,as well as mortality due to cardiovascular disease,cancer,cerebrovascular disease,nephropathy,and influenza or pneumonia).Restricted cubic spline analysis was performed to explore the nonlinear relationship.Finally,threshold effects were analyzed through fitting a two-piecewise linear regression model.Results In a fully adjusted model,no significant linear association was found between caffeine intake and mortality.How-ever,there was a U-shaped association between caffeine intake and all-cause mortality(inflection point:277 mg).Moreover,there was a J-shaped association between caffeine intake and cardiovascular mortality(inflection point:252 mg)and cancer mortality(inflection point:79 mg).Conclusion All-cause mortality was reduced in CKD patients when caffeine intake was less than 277 mg(about 1.85 cups of Americano).However,excessive caffeine intake was associated with increased all-cause mortality,cardiovascular mortality and cancer mortality in this population.
摘要The development of Ivorian public debt in recent years has raised concerns.Is its current level capable of boosting the economy or,on the contrary,being at the source of a recession?This paper analyzes the effect of the level of indebtedness on economic growth in Côte d’Ivoire using the Threshold Autoregressive(TAR)model over the period 1970-2018.The results obtained in the short run shed light on the no relationship between public debt and economic growth.In the long run,on the other hand,there is a bi-directional granger causality between public debt and the sustainability of economic growth.The non-linearity between the variables of interest has been studied and the results show the presence of a threshold effect:beyond 48.03 percent of GDP,any increase in public debt by 1%should reduce economic growth by 0.28%.Thus,the study questions the relevance of the criterion set by the WAEMU:public debt<70%of GDP.
摘要Utilizing provincial panel data from 2014 to 2020,this study employs a fixed effect model,a threshold effect model,and a spatial lag model to empirically examine the correlation between digital economic development and carbon productivity.The findings indicate that digital economic development significantly contributes to the enhancement of carbon productivity in the long term.Furthermore,through instrumental variable method,replacement of explanatory variables and other methods to test its endogeneity and stability,the results remain robust.In terms of regional heterogeneity,the impact of digital economic development on carbon productivity is less pronounced in the central and western regions compared to the eastern region.Additionally,further investigation reveals that industrial structure upgrading and science and technology investment level exhibit different threshold effects on the influence of digital economy development level on carbon productivity.Moreover,there is a significant spatial spillover effect of digital economy development on carbon productivity with H-H and L-L agglomeration spatial correlation.
基金Research on Innovation and Development Strategy of Pharmaceutical Industry in Liaoning Province(2020lslktyb-095).
摘要Objective To study the threshold effect of export trade on internal and external R&D investment in China’s pharmaceutical industry,and to provide reference for some pharmaceutical enterprises to improve the investment.Methods The panel data of pharmaceutical industry in 25 provinces and cities in China from 2009 to 2019 were selected to conduct empirical analysis by establishing a threshold regression model,and a better export trade interval was obtained.Results and Conclusion There is a threshold value for the effect of new product export on both internal and external R&D expenditures,and the threshold values are 845.2788 million yuan and 318.4198 million yuan,respectively.There is a single threshold effect of export trade on both internal and external R&D investment in China’s pharmaceutical industry,and the effect of export trade on internal and external R&D investment changes from negative to positive as the export trade develops from low to high.
基金supported by the Key Project of National Philosophy and Social Science Foundation of China(Grant No.24AGL007).
摘要Economic growth and environmental pollution have become the bases of geopolitical competition due to the multiple constraints of growth in energy consumption and environmental protection in recent decades.Whether the coordinated development of inward foreign direct investment(IFDI)and outward foreign direct investment(OFDI)promote economic growth while reducing environmental pollution and realizing high-quality development affects the overall socialist modernization under China’s“Dual Circulation”policy.Using China’s provincial panel data from 2005 to 2020,this paper first measured green total factor productivity(GTFP)and the coordinated development index(CDIFDI)of IFDI and OFDI via the slacks-based measureglobal Malmquist–Luenberger(SBM-GML)model and the capacity coupling model.A panel threshold model with interactive effects(PTIFEs)was then applied to explore the nonlinear impact of the CDIFDI on China’s GTFP.Finally,a regional heterogeneity analysis was conducted for China’s eastern,central and western regions of China.Results show that(1)GTFP in China kept rising with small fluctuations during the sample period,with the increasing range of GTFP decreasing from east to west.(2)CDIFDI had a significant“U”-shaped threshold effect on GTFP,and the main threshold variables were the industrial structure and the level of economic development.(3)CDIFDI played a positive role in promoting GTFP growth in the eastern region,while the effects of CDIFDI on GTFP in the central and western regions were not significant.Policy-makers and enterprises should comprehensively consider promoting regional industrial upgrading and economic growth to achieve a greater positive impact of CDIFDI on GTFP.Scientifically measuring GTFP and exploring the nonlinear impact of the CDIFDI on GTFP and regional heterogeneity provide helpful references for policy-makers to coordinate the high-quality development of regional economies.
基金This paper was supported by The National Social Science Fund of China-Research on the Quality Improvement Mechanism of Heterogeneous Enterprises’Export Products under the Global Value Chain Division of Labor System(Project No.:18BJL100)Shandong Province Social Science Planning Research Project-Research on Optimizing Operation Mechanism of Shandong Equity Investment Guidance Fund(Project No.:17CJRJ10).
摘要Shandong’s TFP growth is higher than Chinese average,but the growth rate has slowed in recent years,appearing the phenomenon that the growth momentum of Shandong’s TFP is insufficient.Using DEA-Malmquist Index to measure Shandong’s TFP growth rate,empirical research from the perspective of financial development finds that financial scale,efficiency of financial institutions,fiscal intervention,and scale of foreign capital utilization have significant nonlinear effects on the growth of TFP.Furtherly,through threshold analysis,the efficiency of financial institutions has a significant threshold effect on TFP growth.Financial scale and fiscal intervention are the main core variables that affect the growth of TFP under the threshold effect,and they have the same effect direction on TFP before and after the threshold value.However,the effect intensity of these two core variables on TFP is different.
摘要Objectives To observe the effect of β3-Adrenoceptor (AR) on ventricle fibrillation threshold (VFT) and effective refractory period (ERP) in rats with heart failure. Methods Rats were randomized into control group and heart failure group. The expression of β3-ARmRNA was detected with RTPCR; The VFT, ERP, LVESP,LVEDP, +dp/dtmax and -dp/dtmax was measured at the same time with administration of BRL37344 ( 2 nmol / kg, β3- AR agonist). Results ①Both the expression of β3-AR mRNA and the proportion increased in rats with heart failure in comparison with control rats (0.028 vs. 0.011 and 5.4% vs 1.2%, P 〈 0.05);② ERP was longer in rats with heart failure than control group (70.5±5.5 ms vs 59.5±6.4ms, P 〈 0.05) and there was no difference of ERP in rats with heart failure with administration of BRL37344 (73.0±4.8 ms vs 70.5± 5.5 ms, P 〉0.05); ③VFT was lower in rats with heart failure than control group(10.9±0.8 mv vs 30.5± 1.3 mv, P〈 0.05) and decreased obviously in rats with heart failure with administration of BRL37344 (7.1±0.6 mv vs 10.9±0.8 mv, P 〈 0.05) ; The decrease of VFT correlated with the effect on LVESP, +dp/ dtmax,-dp/dtmax of BRL37344 and the expression of β3-AR mRNA (correlation coefficient: 0.788, 0.708, 0.759, 0.787; P 〈 0.05). Conclusions The expression of β3-AR mRNA of left ventricle was obviously increased in rats with heart failure, and activation of β3-AR had no effect on ERP but could decreased VFT which correlated with the effect of β3-AR on LVESP, +dp/dtmax, -dp/dtmax and the expression of β3-AR mRNA.
摘要China’s growing trade with countries along the“Belt and Road”Initiative is accompanied by a focus on green development.Based on the panel data from 2007 to 2018,this paper establishes a threshold regression model to empirically analyze the institutional quality threshold effect of China’s foreign trade technology spillover on the GTFP of countries along the“Belt and Road.”The results show that China’s foreign trade technology spillover has a significant institutional quality double threshold effect on the green total factor productivity of the countries along the“Belt and Road.”As the institutional quality of the countries along the“Belt and Road”crosses a specific threshold value,the impact of China’s foreign trade technology spillover on the green total factor productivity of the countries along the“Belt and Road”has a significant positive promoting effect,and corresponding suggestions are put forward.
基金Supported by Project for Key Subject Construction of Shanghai Open University(ZDXK1601)Scientific Research Project of Shanghai Science and Technology Committee(13DZ2252200)Humanities and Social Sciences Foundation of Ministry of Education of China(16YJC790097)
摘要Based on China's provincial panel data from 2004 to 2014,the net effect and threshold characteristics of local governments' fiscal expenditure structure on environmental pollution were tested with the nonlinear panel threshold model. The results showed that the net effect of fiscal expenditure structure on regional pollution emission intensity had significant inverted V-shaped single threshold characteristics. Besides,the threshold value of economic density was 6. 039 6 million yuan/km^2,and that of population density was 201 people/km^2. That is,the fiscal expenditure structure inclining to productive expenditure was relatively conducive to the promotion of pollution reduction in the areas with low economic density or low population density. The fiscal expenditure structure inclining to non-productive expenditure was relatively conducive to the promotion of pollution reduction in the areas with high economic density or high population density.