广州地区的高温天气主要是受副热带高压和台风外围下沉气流的影响所致。文中采用BDA(Bogus Data Assimilation)方法,探讨BDA方案对广州地区台风背景条件下高温预报的改进能力。选取2005年7月中旬广州地区出现的高温天气进行研究。这是...广州地区的高温天气主要是受副热带高压和台风外围下沉气流的影响所致。文中采用BDA(Bogus Data Assimilation)方法,探讨BDA方案对广州地区台风背景条件下高温预报的改进能力。选取2005年7月中旬广州地区出现的高温天气进行研究。这是比较典型的受副热带高压和台风(海棠)共同影响造成高温的天气过程。分析有无采用BDA方案的模式初始场,结果表明:采用BDA方案同化Bogus模型可以调整台风中心位置和强度,使所得到的初始场中心位置与观测更为接近,台风强度(气压梯度力、风速)比未用Bogus的情况强,与观测值更为接近。数值模拟的结果表明,采用了BDA方案的敏感试验可以更好地预报台风路径和台风中心强度变化,从而更好地预报高温天气,对高温区分布、日平均温度大小等的预报都有改进。文中对引起这种预报差异的原因进行了讨论,并探讨高温预报改进的可能机制。大气下沉运动的增强是高温预报改进的主要原因。敏感试验由于广州中低层大气的水汽减少,大气的下沉增强,致使天空的云量减少,对太阳短波辐射的阻挡减小,从而地面吸收热量增多,温度升高,输送给大气的感热增加,大气温升高。采用BDA方案可以改进模式在台风"海棠"过程对广州高温的预报。展开更多
针对北京经济技术开发区(Beijing Economic-Technology Development Area,BDA)企业的合作竞争网络进行实证研究,建立BDA企业合作竞争网络模型,结合UCINET网络分析软件,描绘BDA企业合作竞争网络结构图。根据BDA的发展特征,将企业主要分...针对北京经济技术开发区(Beijing Economic-Technology Development Area,BDA)企业的合作竞争网络进行实证研究,建立BDA企业合作竞争网络模型,结合UCINET网络分析软件,描绘BDA企业合作竞争网络结构图。根据BDA的发展特征,将企业主要分为四个行业:微电子行业、生物医药行业、汽车行业和装备制造业,清晰地描述了BDA企业合作竞争网络关系并且揭示了网络结构特征。研究也显示,这四大行业形成了具有中心节点的网络,并且网络的信息沟通比较顺畅,有利于企业之间的合作与竞争。该模型也有助于优化区域行业分布和资源分配,给管理决策提供研究支持。展开更多
A new method, BDA perturbing, is used in ensemble forecasting of typhoon track. This method is based on the Bogus Data Assimilation scheme. It perturbs the initial position and intensity of typhoons and gets; a series...A new method, BDA perturbing, is used in ensemble forecasting of typhoon track. This method is based on the Bogus Data Assimilation scheme. It perturbs the initial position and intensity of typhoons and gets; a series of bogus vortex. Then each bogus vortex is used in data assimilation to obtain initial conditions. Ensemble forecast members are constructed by conducting simulation with these initial conditions. Some cases of typhoon are chosen to test the validity of this new method and the results show that: using the BDA perturbing method to perturb initial position and intensity of typhoon for track tbrecast can improve accuracy, compared with the direct use of the BDA assimilation scheme. And it is concluded that a perturbing amplitude of intensity of 5 hPa is probably more appropriate than 10 hPa if the BDA perturbing method is used in combination with initial position perturbation.展开更多
The MM5, which is the PSU/NCAR mesoscale nonhydrostatic limited-area ,nodel, and its adjoining modeling system are used in this paper. Taking T106 analysis data as background field the authors generate an optimal init...The MM5, which is the PSU/NCAR mesoscale nonhydrostatic limited-area ,nodel, and its adjoining modeling system are used in this paper. Taking T106 analysis data as background field the authors generate an optimal initial condition of a typhoon by using two bogus data assimilation schemes, and conduct some numerical simulating experiments. The results ofno.9608 typhoon (Gloria) show that the optimal initial tield have some dramatic improvements, such as inaccurate position of typhoon center, weaker typhoon circulation and incomplete inner structure of the typhoon, which are caused by shortage of data over the sea. Some improvements have been made in the track forecast. Through several comparing experiments, the initialization optimized by BDA scheme is found to be more reasonable than GFDL scheme and its typhoon track forrecast is better.展开更多
综观国内外产业集群理论,产业集群研究主要集中在产业集群的机理、技术创新、组织创新、社会资本、经济增长与产业集群的关系研究,同时涉及产业集群的产业政策和实证研究等方面。而北京经济技术开发区(Beijing Economic-Technological D...综观国内外产业集群理论,产业集群研究主要集中在产业集群的机理、技术创新、组织创新、社会资本、经济增长与产业集群的关系研究,同时涉及产业集群的产业政策和实证研究等方面。而北京经济技术开发区(Beijing Economic-Technological Development Area BDA)实践的步伐早已走在原有理论基础的前面,并为创造新的理论模式提供了现实背景。笔者认为,通过对“集合产业集群”和其运营机制的探究,揭示开发区的可持续发展依赖于“集合产业集群”的发展这一客观必然性,从而引证产业集群的新模式——“集合产业集群”模式,是深化产业集群理论和拓宽产业集群实践的一次新的尝试。展开更多
摘要广州地区的高温天气主要是受副热带高压和台风外围下沉气流的影响所致。文中采用BDA(Bogus Data Assimilation)方法,探讨BDA方案对广州地区台风背景条件下高温预报的改进能力。选取2005年7月中旬广州地区出现的高温天气进行研究。这是比较典型的受副热带高压和台风(海棠)共同影响造成高温的天气过程。分析有无采用BDA方案的模式初始场,结果表明:采用BDA方案同化Bogus模型可以调整台风中心位置和强度,使所得到的初始场中心位置与观测更为接近,台风强度(气压梯度力、风速)比未用Bogus的情况强,与观测值更为接近。数值模拟的结果表明,采用了BDA方案的敏感试验可以更好地预报台风路径和台风中心强度变化,从而更好地预报高温天气,对高温区分布、日平均温度大小等的预报都有改进。文中对引起这种预报差异的原因进行了讨论,并探讨高温预报改进的可能机制。大气下沉运动的增强是高温预报改进的主要原因。敏感试验由于广州中低层大气的水汽减少,大气的下沉增强,致使天空的云量减少,对太阳短波辐射的阻挡减小,从而地面吸收热量增多,温度升高,输送给大气的感热增加,大气温升高。采用BDA方案可以改进模式在台风"海棠"过程对广州高温的预报。
摘要针对北京经济技术开发区(Beijing Economic-Technology Development Area,BDA)企业的合作竞争网络进行实证研究,建立BDA企业合作竞争网络模型,结合UCINET网络分析软件,描绘BDA企业合作竞争网络结构图。根据BDA的发展特征,将企业主要分为四个行业:微电子行业、生物医药行业、汽车行业和装备制造业,清晰地描述了BDA企业合作竞争网络关系并且揭示了网络结构特征。研究也显示,这四大行业形成了具有中心节点的网络,并且网络的信息沟通比较顺畅,有利于企业之间的合作与竞争。该模型也有助于优化区域行业分布和资源分配,给管理决策提供研究支持。
基金"The System of Ensemble Forecasting Models for Tropical Cyclones in the South China Sea",a project of the Scientific and Technological Plans for Guangdong Province(2003C32603)
摘要A new method, BDA perturbing, is used in ensemble forecasting of typhoon track. This method is based on the Bogus Data Assimilation scheme. It perturbs the initial position and intensity of typhoons and gets; a series of bogus vortex. Then each bogus vortex is used in data assimilation to obtain initial conditions. Ensemble forecast members are constructed by conducting simulation with these initial conditions. Some cases of typhoon are chosen to test the validity of this new method and the results show that: using the BDA perturbing method to perturb initial position and intensity of typhoon for track tbrecast can improve accuracy, compared with the direct use of the BDA assimilation scheme. And it is concluded that a perturbing amplitude of intensity of 5 hPa is probably more appropriate than 10 hPa if the BDA perturbing method is used in combination with initial position perturbation.
基金National Key Fundamental Research Project of China (40175012)
摘要The MM5, which is the PSU/NCAR mesoscale nonhydrostatic limited-area ,nodel, and its adjoining modeling system are used in this paper. Taking T106 analysis data as background field the authors generate an optimal initial condition of a typhoon by using two bogus data assimilation schemes, and conduct some numerical simulating experiments. The results ofno.9608 typhoon (Gloria) show that the optimal initial tield have some dramatic improvements, such as inaccurate position of typhoon center, weaker typhoon circulation and incomplete inner structure of the typhoon, which are caused by shortage of data over the sea. Some improvements have been made in the track forecast. Through several comparing experiments, the initialization optimized by BDA scheme is found to be more reasonable than GFDL scheme and its typhoon track forrecast is better.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(973 program)(2014CB239402)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(20923006,21120102036,21106015,91233201)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(DUT13RC(3)103,DUT15LK08)~~
摘要综观国内外产业集群理论,产业集群研究主要集中在产业集群的机理、技术创新、组织创新、社会资本、经济增长与产业集群的关系研究,同时涉及产业集群的产业政策和实证研究等方面。而北京经济技术开发区(Beijing Economic-Technological Development Area BDA)实践的步伐早已走在原有理论基础的前面,并为创造新的理论模式提供了现实背景。笔者认为,通过对“集合产业集群”和其运营机制的探究,揭示开发区的可持续发展依赖于“集合产业集群”的发展这一客观必然性,从而引证产业集群的新模式——“集合产业集群”模式,是深化产业集群理论和拓宽产业集群实践的一次新的尝试。