The assumption widely used in the user equilibrium model for stochastic network was that the probability distributions of the travel time were known explicitly by travelers. However, this distribution may be unavailab...The assumption widely used in the user equilibrium model for stochastic network was that the probability distributions of the travel time were known explicitly by travelers. However, this distribution may be unavailable in reality. By relaxing the restrictive assumption, a robust user equilibrium model based on cumulative prospect theory under distribution-free travel time was presented. In the absence of the cumulative distribution function of the travel time, the exact cumulative prospect value(CPV) for each route cannot be obtained. However, the upper and lower bounds on the CPV can be calculated by probability inequalities.Travelers were assumed to choose the routes with the best worst-case CPVs. The proposed model was formulated as a variational inequality problem and solved via a heuristic solution algorithm. A numerical example was also provided to illustrate the application of the proposed model and the efficiency of the solution algorithm.展开更多
The traffic equilibrium assignment problem under tradable credit scheme(TCS) in a bi-modal stochastic transportation network is investigated in this paper. To describe traveler’s risk-taking behaviors under uncertain...The traffic equilibrium assignment problem under tradable credit scheme(TCS) in a bi-modal stochastic transportation network is investigated in this paper. To describe traveler’s risk-taking behaviors under uncertainty, the cumulative prospect theory(CPT) is adopted. Travelers are assumed to choose the paths with the minimum perceived generalized path costs, consisting of time prospect value(PV) and monetary cost. At equilibrium with a given TCS, the endogenous reference points and credit price remain constant, and are consistent with the equilibrium flow pattern and the corresponding travel time distributions of road sub-network. To describe such an equilibrium state, the CPT-based stochastic user equilibrium(SUE) conditions can be formulated under TCS. An equivalent variational inequality(VI) model embedding a parameterized fixed point(FP) model is then established, with its properties analyzed theoretically. A heuristic solution algorithm is developed to solve the model, which contains two-layer iterations. The outer iteration is a bisection-based contraction method to find the equilibrium credit price, and the inner iteration is essentially the method of successive averages(MSA) to determine the corresponding CPT-based SUE network flow pattern. Numerical experiments are provided to validate the model and algorithm.展开更多
The cumulative prospect theory(CPT) is applied to study travelers' route choice behavior in a degradable transport network. A cumulative prospect theory-based user equilibrium(CPT-UE) model considering stochastic ...The cumulative prospect theory(CPT) is applied to study travelers' route choice behavior in a degradable transport network. A cumulative prospect theory-based user equilibrium(CPT-UE) model considering stochastic perception error(SPE) within travelers' route choice decision process is developed. The SPE is conditionally dependent on the actual travel time distribution, which is different from the deterministic perception error used in the traditional logit-based stochastic user equilibrium. The CPT-UE model is formulated as a variational inequality problem and solved by a heuristic solution algorithm. Numerical examples are provided to illustrate the application of the proposed model and efficiency of the solution algorithm. The effects of SPE on the reference point determination, cumulative prospect value estimation, route choice decision and network performance evaluation are investigated.展开更多
The environmental impact of maritime transport has now become a relevant issue in sustainable policy formulation and has attracted increasing interest from academia.For the sustainable development of maritime transpor...The environmental impact of maritime transport has now become a relevant issue in sustainable policy formulation and has attracted increasing interest from academia.For the sustainable development of maritime transport,International Maritime Organization stipulates that the sulfur content of ship emissions will reach 0.5 from 2020.With the approaching of the stipulated implementation date,shipowners need to adopt scientific methods to make decision on low sulfur fuel.In this study,we applied a prospect theory based hesitant fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making model to obtain the optimal decision of low Sulphur marine fuel.For this purpose,the hesitant fuzzy decision matrix is established to collect expert opinions,the maximizing deviation method is adopted to determine criteria weights.According to calculate the Euclidean distance from the reference points,we obtain the comprehensive prospect values of alternatives.Lastly,a case study is carried out to illustrate the significance and effectiveness of the proposed methodology.The innovation of this study is that it is the first-time adopting prospect theory and hesitate fuzzy sets to multi-criteria decision making for low Sulphur marine fuel,which provides an effective decision model for shipping companies under Low Sulphur regulations,and can also be extended to other industries.展开更多
Understanding and modeling individuals’behaviors during epidemics is crucial for effective epidemic control.However,existing research ignores the impact of users’irrationality on decision-making in the epidemic.Mean...Understanding and modeling individuals’behaviors during epidemics is crucial for effective epidemic control.However,existing research ignores the impact of users’irrationality on decision-making in the epidemic.Meanwhile,existing disease control methods often assume users’full compliance with measures like mandatory isolation,which does not align with the actual situation.To address these issues,this paper proposes a prospect theorybased framework to model users’decision-making process in epidemics and analyzes how irrationality affects individuals’behaviors and epidemic dynamics.According to the analysis results,irrationality tends to prompt conservative behaviors when the infection risk is low but encourages risk-seeking behaviors when the risk is high.Then,this paper proposes a behavior inducement algorithm to guide individuals’behaviors and control the spread of disease.Simulations and real user tests validate our analysis,and simulation results show that the proposed behavior inducement algorithm can effectively guide individuals’behavior.展开更多
Based on the analysis of the evaluation problems associated with the risk control scheme for major engineering projects,the evaluation method of the risk control scheme considering the irrational behavior of evaluatio...Based on the analysis of the evaluation problems associated with the risk control scheme for major engineering projects,the evaluation method of the risk control scheme considering the irrational behavior of evaluation members in fuzzy random environment is proposed.Firstly,a maximum entropy model corresponding to any evaluation member is es-tablished by using triangular fuzzy random variables and grey correlation coefficient in order to obtain the weight of each risk factor of the member.Secondly,a nonlinear programming model is established according to the principle of minimiz-ing deviation to estimate the weight of different evaluation members on the evaluation of alternative risk control schemes.Lastly,the cumulative entropy model is used to calculate the weight of risk control schemes.Cumulative prospect theory obtains the comprehensive prospect utility value of each alternative to determine the optimal alternative.展开更多
Objective To evaluate the effect of health care reform policy in China comprehensively and provide suggestions for its further implementation.Methods Data on the effect of health care reform were obtained from“China ...Objective To evaluate the effect of health care reform policy in China comprehensively and provide suggestions for its further implementation.Methods Data on the effect of health care reform were obtained from“China Health Statistics Yearbook”and National Bureau of Statistics of China and the indicators were selected by corrected item total correlation(CITC)and Cronbach’sαreliability coefficient.Then,the selected indicators were calculated through the prospect theory model.Meanwhile,the gray relation analysis method was introduced to enlarge the differences between the advantages and disadvantages to make the comprehensive evaluation result more obvious.Results and Conclusion The implementation of China’s health care reform has a significant impact on China’s medical and health system.However,the effect of the policy will become less with the increase of the total amount.An effective management can ensure that the policy continues to play its role.展开更多
Purpose-Accurately identifying the risk of poverty-returning is a complex and critical challenge in current poverty alleviation efforts.However,there is currently no study on evaluation methods for the risk of poverty...Purpose-Accurately identifying the risk of poverty-returning is a complex and critical challenge in current poverty alleviation efforts.However,there is currently no study on evaluation methods for the risk of poverty-returning.This study aims to establish a robust and systematic approach for an evaluation framework for the risk of poverty-returning.Design/methodology/approach-Based on relevant assessment criteria,a maximum deviation method was established to identify the weights of the indicators.A complex evaluation methodology using prospect theory(PT),a q-rung orthopair fuzzy set(QrOFS)and evaluation relying on distance from average solution[EDAS](QrOFS-PT-EDAS)was developed to evaluate the poverty-returning risks.Some policy recommendations to reduce the risk of poverty-returning have also been put forward.Findings-His study identifies the risk factors of poverty relapse from nine aspects,including natural disasters,accidents and policy-driven poverty relapse.In addressing the evaluation challenge arising from uncertain decision-making,the QrOFS aligns more with people’s thinking habits and expression methods in complex environments.The proposed hybrid evaluation framework accurately measures the poverty-returning risk,which is beneficial for the formulation of policy recommendations.Originality/value-A scientific and comprehensive assessment system index for poverty-returning is constructed.A hybrid QrOFS-PT-EDAS framework is presented to make the evaluation results more scientific and objective.Several strategic recommendations for reducing the poverty-returning risk are presented.This study offers a novel framework for assessing poverty-returning issues that can be extended to many other areas.展开更多
This paper focuses on consumers'online shopping decision-making,adopting a behavioral economics perspective and analyzing it based on three mechanisms of prospect theory.Building upon a review of relevant literatu...This paper focuses on consumers'online shopping decision-making,adopting a behavioral economics perspective and analyzing it based on three mechanisms of prospect theory.Building upon a review of relevant literature,the core tenets of prospect theory are summarized,followed by an exploration of how these theoretical perspectives influence consumers'behavioral decisions across various stages,including information gathering,product evaluation,purchase intention,and postpurchase evaluation.The research findings are synthesized to highlight the significance of understanding consumer online shopping decisions through the lens of prospect theory,offering insights for academic innovation,business practices,policy formulation,and societal benefit enhancement.展开更多
As an effective travel demand management means,park-and-ride(P&R)mode is an important part of urban traffic.In a traffic corridor with P&R service,suppose that the travel time on highway is uncertain,a cumulat...As an effective travel demand management means,park-and-ride(P&R)mode is an important part of urban traffic.In a traffic corridor with P&R service,suppose that the travel time on highway is uncertain,a cumulative prospect theory(CPT)-based travel decision-making model is established with two travel modes of driving all the way and(P&R).With this setting,the effect of various factors such as the transit fare rate,the parking fee and the total travel demand on the CPT-based and expected utility theory(EUT)-based equilibrium results are compared.In addition,the sensitivity analysis focus on CPT-related parameters are also performed.The numerical results in our case show that the equilibrium flow on P&R mode is always underestimated in an EUT-based model,especially for a low total travel demand.Also,it is found that reducing the transit fare rate or parking fee for P&R station and raising the parking fee for CBD has the same effect on promoting more commuters transfer to P&R mode,whatever CPT-based or EUT-based model is employed.Furthermore,commuter’s reference dependence characteristic is also observed in a CPT-based model,and it is especially noticeable when the road uncertainty is large.展开更多
Considering the decision maker's risk psychological factors and information ambiguity under uncertainty, a novel TOPSIS based on prospect theory (PT) and trapezoidal intuitionistic fuzzy numbers (YrIFNs) for grou...Considering the decision maker's risk psychological factors and information ambiguity under uncertainty, a novel TOPSIS based on prospect theory (PT) and trapezoidal intuitionistic fuzzy numbers (YrIFNs) for group decision making is investigated, in which the criteria values and the criteria weights take the form of TrIFNs, and weights of decision makers are unknown. Firstly, distance measures for TrIFNs are used to induce value function under trapezoidal intuitionistic fuzzy environment. Secondly, the concepts of distance measures and trapezoidal intuitionistie fuzzy weighted averaging operator are employed to induce the weights of decision makers and thus the decision makers' options can be aggregated. Then the PT-based separation measures and relative closeness coefficient are defined and an algorithm for ranking alternatives under trapezoidal intuitionistic fuzzy environment is proposed. Finally, a numerical example further illustrates the practicality and effectiveness of the proposed TOPSIS method.展开更多
Based on the newsvendor setting,many behavioral models are proposed to predict the biases of decision makers in inventory management.Recently,Nagarajan and Shechter(Manag Sci 60:1057–1062,2014)claimed that prospect t...Based on the newsvendor setting,many behavioral models are proposed to predict the biases of decision makers in inventory management.Recently,Nagarajan and Shechter(Manag Sci 60:1057–1062,2014)claimed that prospect theory cannot explain the consistent empirical findings.However,it is noticed that their model is a special case of the general prospect theorymodel.In this note,we showthat the general prospect theory model may be powerful in predicting the preferences of decision makers in inventory management.展开更多
Multi-objective optimization of urban bus network can help improve operation efficiency of the transit system and develop strategies for reducing urban traffic congestion in China. The work used cumulative prospect th...Multi-objective optimization of urban bus network can help improve operation efficiency of the transit system and develop strategies for reducing urban traffic congestion in China. The work used cumulative prospect theory, currently the most influential model for decision under uncertainty,to optimize urban bus network. To achieve the research objective, the work developed the theoretical framework of urban bus network optimization, including optimization principle, optimization objectives and constraints. Furthermore, optimization objectives could comprehensively reflect expectations of passengers and bus companies from the dimension of time, space and value. It is more scientific and reasonable compared with only one stakeholder or dimension alone in the previous studies. In addition,the technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution(TOPSIS) was used to determine the positive and negative ideal alternative. The correlations between the optimization alternatives and the ideal alternatives were estimated by grey relational analysis simultaneously. The cumulative prospect theory(CPT) was used to determine the best alternative by comparing comprehensive prospect value of every alternative, accurately describing decision-making behavior compared with expected utility theory in actual life. Finally, Case of Xi'an showed that the method can better adjust the bus network,and the optimization solution is more reasonable to meet the actual needs.展开更多
Strategic resource allocation into decision-making model plays a valuable role for the defender in mitigating damage and improving efficiency in military environments.In this paper,we develop a defensive resource allo...Strategic resource allocation into decision-making model plays a valuable role for the defender in mitigating damage and improving efficiency in military environments.In this paper,we develop a defensive resource allocation model based on cumulative prospect theory(CPT),which considers terrorists'psychological factors of decision-making in reality.More specifically,we extend existing models in the presence of multiple attributes and terrorists'deviations from rationality using a multi-attribute cumulative prospect theory.In addition,interval values are used to cope with uncertainties regarding gain and loss.Comparative studies are also carried out to demonstrate the differences among minmax,Nash equilibrium(NE),and traditional probability risk analysis(PRA)strategies.Results show that the defender's optimal defensive resource allocation will change along with terrorists'behaviors and the proposed model makes more sense compared with other traditional resource allocation strategies.展开更多
The manner in which economic outcomes are coded in a value function is critical because it has substantial influence on the evaluation of risky choices.In this paper,we formulate multiple mental accounts in a nonlinea...The manner in which economic outcomes are coded in a value function is critical because it has substantial influence on the evaluation of risky choices.In this paper,we formulate multiple mental accounts in a nonlinear value function and propose a newsvendor problem with mental accounting to predict and explain pull-to-center phenomenon.We show that the distinctive predictions of the proposed model come from the value function with mental accounting.We identify the individual and combined effects of loss aversion,risk aversion,and risk seeking on shaping newsvendor ordering behavior.Our work demonstrates that prospect theory can explain the decision bias and ordering behavior observed in newsvendor experiments.We also provide some additional insights to explain the studies in the literature.展开更多
This paper studies the impact of the reference point on a hedger's decision based upon prospect theory and experimental evidence on how prior outcomes affect risky choice. The authors show that in the futures market,...This paper studies the impact of the reference point on a hedger's decision based upon prospect theory and experimental evidence on how prior outcomes affect risky choice. The authors show that in the futures market, a hedger who does not adjust his reference point timely would increase his positions continually as his accumulated losses increase, and finally become a speculator. Numerical simulation results under the normal distribution also lend support to the results. The model can help explain why the hedging behavior of firms turns into speculative activities and can offer some new insights into hedging behavior.展开更多
In this paper, the portfolio selection problem under Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT) is investigated and a model of portfolio optimization is presented. This model is solved by coupling scenario generation techniqu...In this paper, the portfolio selection problem under Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT) is investigated and a model of portfolio optimization is presented. This model is solved by coupling scenario generation techniques with a genetic algorithm. Moreover, an Adaptive Real-Coded Genetic Algorithm (ARCGA) is developed to find the optimal solution for the proposed model. Computational results show that the proposed method solves the portfolio selection model and that ARCGA is an effective and stable algorithm. We compare the portfolio choices of CPT investors based on various bootstrap techniques for scenario generation and empirically examine the effect of reference points on investment behavior.展开更多
Energy storage(ES)is vital in electricity markets and its operation is currently forced on single market service.However,ES could get more profits by participating in multiple market services.Thus,the potential of ES ...Energy storage(ES)is vital in electricity markets and its operation is currently forced on single market service.However,ES could get more profits by participating in multiple market services.Thus,the potential of ES is undervalued,and ES cannot get sufficient incentives.In addition,the benefits and risks vary significantly over different markets,which causes severe challenges for ES to manage its capacity optimally over its daily cycle.Portfolio Theory,an optimal trading tool to maximise expected return while minimising corresponding risk,is introduced to quantify the ES capacity allocation over multiple markets.This paper models expected returns and risks of ES over the energy arbitrage market,enhanced frequency response market,and distribution network operator's(DNO's)market.Corresponding to risk over markets,risk aversion level of the storage is evaluated based on the Cumulative Prospect Theory,which is depicted as its indifference curve.The optimum portfolio is calculated by the intersection between the efficient frontier and indifference curve.Then,the ES operation strategy is designed via Robust Optimisation to ensure maximum profit under market price signals uncertainty.Results show the proposed method models risk aversion level of ES more accurately.It also provides an efficient capacity sharing model and daily operation model for ES participating in multiple market services to gain maximum economic return at minimum risk under uncertainty.展开更多
Multi-access Edge Computing(MEC)enhances computational efficiency by enabling resource-constrained User Devices(UD)to offload tasks to edge servers.Compared to traditional edge servers fixed on the Small Cellular Base...Multi-access Edge Computing(MEC)enhances computational efficiency by enabling resource-constrained User Devices(UD)to offload tasks to edge servers.Compared to traditional edge servers fixed on the Small Cellular Base Stations(SBS),mobile vehicles with idle resources serve as mobile edge servers,which can reduce UD's task latency due to closer proximity to the UD.However,due to the limited computation resources of vehicles and highly competitive among UD,the available computation resources provided by vehicles for UD are uncertain,which poses a challenge for UD in making task offloading decisions.In this paper,we establish a risk-aware task offloading framework in vehicle-assisted MEC networks with computation resource uncertainty,where UD make offloading decisions by considering their risk-aware behavior.We first characterize and model UD's riskaware behavior based on Prospect Theory(PT)and then formulate a user satisfaction maximization problem by optimizing the offloading strategy of UD.To solve it,we reformulate the above problem among multiple users as a non-cooperative game and prove the uniqueness of the Pure Nash Equilibrium(PNE).We also propose a lowcomplexity distributed iterative optimization algorithm to obtain the optimal offloading strategy.The simulation results demonstrate that the proposed scheme significantly enhances satisfaction utility of UD and reduces failure probability of vehicles compared to other benchmark methods.展开更多
1 Introduction Shale formations bear abundant mineral resource and*unconventional petroleum resource,and the unconventional petroleum resource that contain in the shale formation should be integrated and researched.
基金Project(2012CB725400)supported by the National Basic Research Program of ChinaProjects(71271023,71322102,7121001)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
摘要The assumption widely used in the user equilibrium model for stochastic network was that the probability distributions of the travel time were known explicitly by travelers. However, this distribution may be unavailable in reality. By relaxing the restrictive assumption, a robust user equilibrium model based on cumulative prospect theory under distribution-free travel time was presented. In the absence of the cumulative distribution function of the travel time, the exact cumulative prospect value(CPV) for each route cannot be obtained. However, the upper and lower bounds on the CPV can be calculated by probability inequalities.Travelers were assumed to choose the routes with the best worst-case CPVs. The proposed model was formulated as a variational inequality problem and solved via a heuristic solution algorithm. A numerical example was also provided to illustrate the application of the proposed model and the efficiency of the solution algorithm.
基金Project(BX20180268)supported by National Postdoctoral Program for Innovative Talent,ChinaProject(300102228101)supported by Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China+1 种基金Project(51578150)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(18YJCZH130)supported by the Humanities and Social Science Project of Chinese Ministry of Education
摘要The traffic equilibrium assignment problem under tradable credit scheme(TCS) in a bi-modal stochastic transportation network is investigated in this paper. To describe traveler’s risk-taking behaviors under uncertainty, the cumulative prospect theory(CPT) is adopted. Travelers are assumed to choose the paths with the minimum perceived generalized path costs, consisting of time prospect value(PV) and monetary cost. At equilibrium with a given TCS, the endogenous reference points and credit price remain constant, and are consistent with the equilibrium flow pattern and the corresponding travel time distributions of road sub-network. To describe such an equilibrium state, the CPT-based stochastic user equilibrium(SUE) conditions can be formulated under TCS. An equivalent variational inequality(VI) model embedding a parameterized fixed point(FP) model is then established, with its properties analyzed theoretically. A heuristic solution algorithm is developed to solve the model, which contains two-layer iterations. The outer iteration is a bisection-based contraction method to find the equilibrium credit price, and the inner iteration is essentially the method of successive averages(MSA) to determine the corresponding CPT-based SUE network flow pattern. Numerical experiments are provided to validate the model and algorithm.
基金Project(2012CB725400)supported by the National Basic Research Program of ChinaProjects(71271023,71322102)supported by the National Science Foundation of ChinaProject(2015JBM053)supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities,China
摘要The cumulative prospect theory(CPT) is applied to study travelers' route choice behavior in a degradable transport network. A cumulative prospect theory-based user equilibrium(CPT-UE) model considering stochastic perception error(SPE) within travelers' route choice decision process is developed. The SPE is conditionally dependent on the actual travel time distribution, which is different from the deterministic perception error used in the traditional logit-based stochastic user equilibrium. The CPT-UE model is formulated as a variational inequality problem and solved by a heuristic solution algorithm. Numerical examples are provided to illustrate the application of the proposed model and efficiency of the solution algorithm. The effects of SPE on the reference point determination, cumulative prospect value estimation, route choice decision and network performance evaluation are investigated.
摘要The environmental impact of maritime transport has now become a relevant issue in sustainable policy formulation and has attracted increasing interest from academia.For the sustainable development of maritime transport,International Maritime Organization stipulates that the sulfur content of ship emissions will reach 0.5 from 2020.With the approaching of the stipulated implementation date,shipowners need to adopt scientific methods to make decision on low sulfur fuel.In this study,we applied a prospect theory based hesitant fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making model to obtain the optimal decision of low Sulphur marine fuel.For this purpose,the hesitant fuzzy decision matrix is established to collect expert opinions,the maximizing deviation method is adopted to determine criteria weights.According to calculate the Euclidean distance from the reference points,we obtain the comprehensive prospect values of alternatives.Lastly,a case study is carried out to illustrate the significance and effectiveness of the proposed methodology.The innovation of this study is that it is the first-time adopting prospect theory and hesitate fuzzy sets to multi-criteria decision making for low Sulphur marine fuel,which provides an effective decision model for shipping companies under Low Sulphur regulations,and can also be extended to other industries.
摘要Understanding and modeling individuals’behaviors during epidemics is crucial for effective epidemic control.However,existing research ignores the impact of users’irrationality on decision-making in the epidemic.Meanwhile,existing disease control methods often assume users’full compliance with measures like mandatory isolation,which does not align with the actual situation.To address these issues,this paper proposes a prospect theorybased framework to model users’decision-making process in epidemics and analyzes how irrationality affects individuals’behaviors and epidemic dynamics.According to the analysis results,irrationality tends to prompt conservative behaviors when the infection risk is low but encourages risk-seeking behaviors when the risk is high.Then,this paper proposes a behavior inducement algorithm to guide individuals’behaviors and control the spread of disease.Simulations and real user tests validate our analysis,and simulation results show that the proposed behavior inducement algorithm can effectively guide individuals’behavior.
摘要Based on the analysis of the evaluation problems associated with the risk control scheme for major engineering projects,the evaluation method of the risk control scheme considering the irrational behavior of evaluation members in fuzzy random environment is proposed.Firstly,a maximum entropy model corresponding to any evaluation member is es-tablished by using triangular fuzzy random variables and grey correlation coefficient in order to obtain the weight of each risk factor of the member.Secondly,a nonlinear programming model is established according to the principle of minimiz-ing deviation to estimate the weight of different evaluation members on the evaluation of alternative risk control schemes.Lastly,the cumulative entropy model is used to calculate the weight of risk control schemes.Cumulative prospect theory obtains the comprehensive prospect utility value of each alternative to determine the optimal alternative.
摘要Objective To evaluate the effect of health care reform policy in China comprehensively and provide suggestions for its further implementation.Methods Data on the effect of health care reform were obtained from“China Health Statistics Yearbook”and National Bureau of Statistics of China and the indicators were selected by corrected item total correlation(CITC)and Cronbach’sαreliability coefficient.Then,the selected indicators were calculated through the prospect theory model.Meanwhile,the gray relation analysis method was introduced to enlarge the differences between the advantages and disadvantages to make the comprehensive evaluation result more obvious.Results and Conclusion The implementation of China’s health care reform has a significant impact on China’s medical and health system.However,the effect of the policy will become less with the increase of the total amount.An effective management can ensure that the policy continues to play its role.
基金supported by the Ningbo Natural Science Foundation(2023J101).
摘要Purpose-Accurately identifying the risk of poverty-returning is a complex and critical challenge in current poverty alleviation efforts.However,there is currently no study on evaluation methods for the risk of poverty-returning.This study aims to establish a robust and systematic approach for an evaluation framework for the risk of poverty-returning.Design/methodology/approach-Based on relevant assessment criteria,a maximum deviation method was established to identify the weights of the indicators.A complex evaluation methodology using prospect theory(PT),a q-rung orthopair fuzzy set(QrOFS)and evaluation relying on distance from average solution[EDAS](QrOFS-PT-EDAS)was developed to evaluate the poverty-returning risks.Some policy recommendations to reduce the risk of poverty-returning have also been put forward.Findings-His study identifies the risk factors of poverty relapse from nine aspects,including natural disasters,accidents and policy-driven poverty relapse.In addressing the evaluation challenge arising from uncertain decision-making,the QrOFS aligns more with people’s thinking habits and expression methods in complex environments.The proposed hybrid evaluation framework accurately measures the poverty-returning risk,which is beneficial for the formulation of policy recommendations.Originality/value-A scientific and comprehensive assessment system index for poverty-returning is constructed.A hybrid QrOFS-PT-EDAS framework is presented to make the evaluation results more scientific and objective.Several strategic recommendations for reducing the poverty-returning risk are presented.This study offers a novel framework for assessing poverty-returning issues that can be extended to many other areas.
摘要This paper focuses on consumers'online shopping decision-making,adopting a behavioral economics perspective and analyzing it based on three mechanisms of prospect theory.Building upon a review of relevant literature,the core tenets of prospect theory are summarized,followed by an exploration of how these theoretical perspectives influence consumers'behavioral decisions across various stages,including information gathering,product evaluation,purchase intention,and postpurchase evaluation.The research findings are synthesized to highlight the significance of understanding consumer online shopping decisions through the lens of prospect theory,offering insights for academic innovation,business practices,policy formulation,and societal benefit enhancement.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.71671044,71301028 and 71303051)Excellent Youth Science Foundation of Fujian Province(No.2016J06017).
摘要As an effective travel demand management means,park-and-ride(P&R)mode is an important part of urban traffic.In a traffic corridor with P&R service,suppose that the travel time on highway is uncertain,a cumulative prospect theory(CPT)-based travel decision-making model is established with two travel modes of driving all the way and(P&R).With this setting,the effect of various factors such as the transit fare rate,the parking fee and the total travel demand on the CPT-based and expected utility theory(EUT)-based equilibrium results are compared.In addition,the sensitivity analysis focus on CPT-related parameters are also performed.The numerical results in our case show that the equilibrium flow on P&R mode is always underestimated in an EUT-based model,especially for a low total travel demand.Also,it is found that reducing the transit fare rate or parking fee for P&R station and raising the parking fee for CBD has the same effect on promoting more commuters transfer to P&R mode,whatever CPT-based or EUT-based model is employed.Furthermore,commuter’s reference dependence characteristic is also observed in a CPT-based model,and it is especially noticeable when the road uncertainty is large.
基金supported by the National Natural Sciences Foundation of China(No.71221061)China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(No.2014M552169)Central South University Business Management Postdoctoral Research Station
摘要Considering the decision maker's risk psychological factors and information ambiguity under uncertainty, a novel TOPSIS based on prospect theory (PT) and trapezoidal intuitionistic fuzzy numbers (YrIFNs) for group decision making is investigated, in which the criteria values and the criteria weights take the form of TrIFNs, and weights of decision makers are unknown. Firstly, distance measures for TrIFNs are used to induce value function under trapezoidal intuitionistic fuzzy environment. Secondly, the concepts of distance measures and trapezoidal intuitionistie fuzzy weighted averaging operator are employed to induce the weights of decision makers and thus the decision makers' options can be aggregated. Then the PT-based separation measures and relative closeness coefficient are defined and an algorithm for ranking alternatives under trapezoidal intuitionistic fuzzy environment is proposed. Finally, a numerical example further illustrates the practicality and effectiveness of the proposed TOPSIS method.
基金This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.71031005 and 71201134).
摘要Based on the newsvendor setting,many behavioral models are proposed to predict the biases of decision makers in inventory management.Recently,Nagarajan and Shechter(Manag Sci 60:1057–1062,2014)claimed that prospect theory cannot explain the consistent empirical findings.However,it is noticed that their model is a special case of the general prospect theorymodel.In this note,we showthat the general prospect theory model may be powerful in predicting the preferences of decision makers in inventory management.
基金supported by China’s National Key Basic Research Program under Grant No.2012CB725400China’s National Natural Science Fund Key Research Program under Grant No.51338003+2 种基金Key Cultivating Plan of Xi’an University of Architecture and Technology for Discipline Construction under Grant No.XK201213Talents Training Fund Program of Xi’an University of Architecture and Technology for Cultivating Discipline Construction under Grant No.XK201101Youth Talent Fund of Xi’an University of Architecture and Technology under Grant No.DB01138
摘要Multi-objective optimization of urban bus network can help improve operation efficiency of the transit system and develop strategies for reducing urban traffic congestion in China. The work used cumulative prospect theory, currently the most influential model for decision under uncertainty,to optimize urban bus network. To achieve the research objective, the work developed the theoretical framework of urban bus network optimization, including optimization principle, optimization objectives and constraints. Furthermore, optimization objectives could comprehensively reflect expectations of passengers and bus companies from the dimension of time, space and value. It is more scientific and reasonable compared with only one stakeholder or dimension alone in the previous studies. In addition,the technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution(TOPSIS) was used to determine the positive and negative ideal alternative. The correlations between the optimization alternatives and the ideal alternatives were estimated by grey relational analysis simultaneously. The cumulative prospect theory(CPT) was used to determine the best alternative by comparing comprehensive prospect value of every alternative, accurately describing decision-making behavior compared with expected utility theory in actual life. Finally, Case of Xi'an showed that the method can better adjust the bus network,and the optimization solution is more reasonable to meet the actual needs.
基金supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.71690233,71501182,and 71571185.The authors would like to thank the Guest Editors and anonymous referees for furnishing comments and constructive suggestions that improved the quality of this paper.
摘要Strategic resource allocation into decision-making model plays a valuable role for the defender in mitigating damage and improving efficiency in military environments.In this paper,we develop a defensive resource allocation model based on cumulative prospect theory(CPT),which considers terrorists'psychological factors of decision-making in reality.More specifically,we extend existing models in the presence of multiple attributes and terrorists'deviations from rationality using a multi-attribute cumulative prospect theory.In addition,interval values are used to cope with uncertainties regarding gain and loss.Comparative studies are also carried out to demonstrate the differences among minmax,Nash equilibrium(NE),and traditional probability risk analysis(PRA)strategies.Results show that the defender's optimal defensive resource allocation will change along with terrorists'behaviors and the proposed model makes more sense compared with other traditional resource allocation strategies.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.71872012 and 71372018the Key Research Program of Beijing Social Science Foundation under Grant No.15JDJGA021+6 种基金the International Clean Energy Talents Program of China Scholarship Council underunder Grant Nos.Liujinfa[2017]5047 and Liujinfa[2018]5023the Special Fund of Beijing Municipal Commission of Education under Grant No.20162139016the Ministry of Education of Humanities and Social Science Project under Grant Nos.l9YJC630044 and 19YJC630035the National Natural Science Foundation of Zhejiang Province under Grant No.LY18G010016Zhoushan Science and Technology Project under Grant No.2017C41018the Foundation of Zhejiang Educational Committee under Grant No.Y201840337the Startup Foundation of Zhejiang Ocean University under Grant Nos.11085090318 and 11085090418.
摘要The manner in which economic outcomes are coded in a value function is critical because it has substantial influence on the evaluation of risky choices.In this paper,we formulate multiple mental accounts in a nonlinear value function and propose a newsvendor problem with mental accounting to predict and explain pull-to-center phenomenon.We show that the distinctive predictions of the proposed model come from the value function with mental accounting.We identify the individual and combined effects of loss aversion,risk aversion,and risk seeking on shaping newsvendor ordering behavior.Our work demonstrates that prospect theory can explain the decision bias and ordering behavior observed in newsvendor experiments.We also provide some additional insights to explain the studies in the literature.
基金This research is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation under Grant No.70221001
摘要This paper studies the impact of the reference point on a hedger's decision based upon prospect theory and experimental evidence on how prior outcomes affect risky choice. The authors show that in the futures market, a hedger who does not adjust his reference point timely would increase his positions continually as his accumulated losses increase, and finally become a speculator. Numerical simulation results under the normal distribution also lend support to the results. The model can help explain why the hedging behavior of firms turns into speculative activities and can offer some new insights into hedging behavior.
摘要In this paper, the portfolio selection problem under Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT) is investigated and a model of portfolio optimization is presented. This model is solved by coupling scenario generation techniques with a genetic algorithm. Moreover, an Adaptive Real-Coded Genetic Algorithm (ARCGA) is developed to find the optimal solution for the proposed model. Computational results show that the proposed method solves the portfolio selection model and that ARCGA is an effective and stable algorithm. We compare the portfolio choices of CPT investors based on various bootstrap techniques for scenario generation and empirically examine the effect of reference points on investment behavior.
基金supported in part by the National Key R&D Program of China(No.2021YFB2400701)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52107090)。
摘要Energy storage(ES)is vital in electricity markets and its operation is currently forced on single market service.However,ES could get more profits by participating in multiple market services.Thus,the potential of ES is undervalued,and ES cannot get sufficient incentives.In addition,the benefits and risks vary significantly over different markets,which causes severe challenges for ES to manage its capacity optimally over its daily cycle.Portfolio Theory,an optimal trading tool to maximise expected return while minimising corresponding risk,is introduced to quantify the ES capacity allocation over multiple markets.This paper models expected returns and risks of ES over the energy arbitrage market,enhanced frequency response market,and distribution network operator's(DNO's)market.Corresponding to risk over markets,risk aversion level of the storage is evaluated based on the Cumulative Prospect Theory,which is depicted as its indifference curve.The optimum portfolio is calculated by the intersection between the efficient frontier and indifference curve.Then,the ES operation strategy is designed via Robust Optimisation to ensure maximum profit under market price signals uncertainty.Results show the proposed method models risk aversion level of ES more accurately.It also provides an efficient capacity sharing model and daily operation model for ES participating in multiple market services to gain maximum economic return at minimum risk under uncertainty.
基金supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(U22A2003,62271295,U23A20277)the Taishan Scholar Program of Shandong Province of China(No.tsqn202408137)。
摘要Multi-access Edge Computing(MEC)enhances computational efficiency by enabling resource-constrained User Devices(UD)to offload tasks to edge servers.Compared to traditional edge servers fixed on the Small Cellular Base Stations(SBS),mobile vehicles with idle resources serve as mobile edge servers,which can reduce UD's task latency due to closer proximity to the UD.However,due to the limited computation resources of vehicles and highly competitive among UD,the available computation resources provided by vehicles for UD are uncertain,which poses a challenge for UD in making task offloading decisions.In this paper,we establish a risk-aware task offloading framework in vehicle-assisted MEC networks with computation resource uncertainty,where UD make offloading decisions by considering their risk-aware behavior.We first characterize and model UD's riskaware behavior based on Prospect Theory(PT)and then formulate a user satisfaction maximization problem by optimizing the offloading strategy of UD.To solve it,we reformulate the above problem among multiple users as a non-cooperative game and prove the uniqueness of the Pure Nash Equilibrium(PNE).We also propose a lowcomplexity distributed iterative optimization algorithm to obtain the optimal offloading strategy.The simulation results demonstrate that the proposed scheme significantly enhances satisfaction utility of UD and reduces failure probability of vehicles compared to other benchmark methods.
基金supported by funding the National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program) and the grant number is 2014CB239000
摘要1 Introduction Shale formations bear abundant mineral resource and*unconventional petroleum resource,and the unconventional petroleum resource that contain in the shale formation should be integrated and researched.