Against the backdrop of the advancement of the"dual carbon"goals and the normalization of the national carbon market’s operations,the trading attributes of carbon emission allowances are continuously streng...Against the backdrop of the advancement of the"dual carbon"goals and the normalization of the national carbon market’s operations,the trading attributes of carbon emission allowances are continuously strengthening.The carbon market is gradually moving beyond a single compliance scenario,exhibiting trends towards assetisation,productization and deeper involvement by financial institutions.Financialization has enhanced the efficiency of carbon price discovery and resource allocation.Still,it has also exacerbated issues such as insufficient market liquidity,price volatility,leverage expansion and the transmission of risks across markets.Carbon market regulation should,whilst maintaining its emission reduction constraints,incorporate market-based institutions,rules governing market participants’behaviour,tiered product management and inter-departmental coordination into a unified governance framework,thereby achieving a balance between the development of the carbon market and the prevention and control of financial risks.展开更多
Global warming has triggered frequent extreme rainfall, high-temperature droughts, short-duration severe convective weather, disrupting the original water-soil-rock coupling equilibrium of hydrogeological-engineering-...Global warming has triggered frequent extreme rainfall, high-temperature droughts, short-duration severe convective weather, disrupting the original water-soil-rock coupling equilibrium of hydrogeological-engineering-environmental (hydro-eng-env) geological systems. This leads to frequent, complex, cascading hydro-eng-env geological disasters including landslides, rockfalls, debris flows, land subsidence and groundwater contamination, exerting long-term adverse impacts on the operation and maintenance of hydraulic projects, regional ecological security and urban geological stability. To address the drawbacks of conventional disaster prevention and control modes such as lagging static risk prediction, insufficient cascading risk management and inadequate collaborative governance of multiple disaster types, this paper systematically analyzes the formation mechanisms of hydro-eng-env geological disasters against the backdrop of climate change based on field measured regional hydro-eng-env geological data and dynamic climate monitoring samples. Four major evolution laws are summarized, namely accumulation of disaster inducing factors, cascading propagation, spatio-temporal alternation and coupling variation. Combined with practical engineering geological challenges, multi-dimensional, full-process and intelligent comprehensive prevention and control measures are proposed, integrating dynamic monitoring and early warning, hierarchical and classified regulation, whole-cycle disaster prevention and mitigation, as well as diversified governance.展开更多
This paper describes a non-linear information dynamics model for integrated risk assessment of complex disaster system from an evolution perspective.According to the occurrence and evolution of natural disaster system...This paper describes a non-linear information dynamics model for integrated risk assessment of complex disaster system from an evolution perspective.According to the occurrence and evolution of natural disaster system with complicated and nonlinear characteristics,a non-linear information dynamics mode is introduced based on the maximum flux principle during modeling process to study the integrated risk assessment of complex disaster system.Based on the non-equilibrium statistical mechanics method,a stochastic evolution equation of this system is established.The integrated risk assessment of complex disaster system can be achieved by giving reasonable weights of each evaluation index to stabilize the system.The new model reveals the formation pattern of risk grade and the dynamics law of evolution.Meanwhile,a method is developed to solve the dynamics evolution equations of complex system through the self-organization feature map algorithm.The proposed method has been used in complex disaster integrated risk assessment for 31 provinces,cities and autonomous regions in China mainland.The results have indicated that the model is objective and effective.展开更多
摘要Against the backdrop of the advancement of the"dual carbon"goals and the normalization of the national carbon market’s operations,the trading attributes of carbon emission allowances are continuously strengthening.The carbon market is gradually moving beyond a single compliance scenario,exhibiting trends towards assetisation,productization and deeper involvement by financial institutions.Financialization has enhanced the efficiency of carbon price discovery and resource allocation.Still,it has also exacerbated issues such as insufficient market liquidity,price volatility,leverage expansion and the transmission of risks across markets.Carbon market regulation should,whilst maintaining its emission reduction constraints,incorporate market-based institutions,rules governing market participants’behaviour,tiered product management and inter-departmental coordination into a unified governance framework,thereby achieving a balance between the development of the carbon market and the prevention and control of financial risks.
摘要Global warming has triggered frequent extreme rainfall, high-temperature droughts, short-duration severe convective weather, disrupting the original water-soil-rock coupling equilibrium of hydrogeological-engineering-environmental (hydro-eng-env) geological systems. This leads to frequent, complex, cascading hydro-eng-env geological disasters including landslides, rockfalls, debris flows, land subsidence and groundwater contamination, exerting long-term adverse impacts on the operation and maintenance of hydraulic projects, regional ecological security and urban geological stability. To address the drawbacks of conventional disaster prevention and control modes such as lagging static risk prediction, insufficient cascading risk management and inadequate collaborative governance of multiple disaster types, this paper systematically analyzes the formation mechanisms of hydro-eng-env geological disasters against the backdrop of climate change based on field measured regional hydro-eng-env geological data and dynamic climate monitoring samples. Four major evolution laws are summarized, namely accumulation of disaster inducing factors, cascading propagation, spatio-temporal alternation and coupling variation. Combined with practical engineering geological challenges, multi-dimensional, full-process and intelligent comprehensive prevention and control measures are proposed, integrating dynamic monitoring and early warning, hierarchical and classified regulation, whole-cycle disaster prevention and mitigation, as well as diversified governance.
基金supported by the National Twelfth Five-year Technology Support Projects of China(Grant Nos.2009BAJ28B04,2011BAK07B01,2011BAJ08B03,and 2011BAJ08B05)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51208017)+1 种基金Beijing Postdoctoral Research Foundation(Grant No.2012ZZ-17)China Postdoctoral Science Foundation Funded Project(Grant No.2011M500199)
摘要This paper describes a non-linear information dynamics model for integrated risk assessment of complex disaster system from an evolution perspective.According to the occurrence and evolution of natural disaster system with complicated and nonlinear characteristics,a non-linear information dynamics mode is introduced based on the maximum flux principle during modeling process to study the integrated risk assessment of complex disaster system.Based on the non-equilibrium statistical mechanics method,a stochastic evolution equation of this system is established.The integrated risk assessment of complex disaster system can be achieved by giving reasonable weights of each evaluation index to stabilize the system.The new model reveals the formation pattern of risk grade and the dynamics law of evolution.Meanwhile,a method is developed to solve the dynamics evolution equations of complex system through the self-organization feature map algorithm.The proposed method has been used in complex disaster integrated risk assessment for 31 provinces,cities and autonomous regions in China mainland.The results have indicated that the model is objective and effective.