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Belief reliability modeling and analysis for TPS considering physical principles,degradation mechanism and epistemic uncertainties 认领 引用
1
作者 Dayu CHEN Yao LI +4 位作者 Yiyang SHANGGUAN Zhiqiang LI Zhenqiang WU Xiaoyang LI Rui KANG 《Chinese Journal of Aeronautics》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2025年第5期262-274,共13页
Thermal Protection System(TPS)with thick tiles,low thermal conductivity,and a short re-entry stage stands as a critical element within reusable aircraft,whose reliability is related to the function and changes with th... Thermal Protection System(TPS)with thick tiles,low thermal conductivity,and a short re-entry stage stands as a critical element within reusable aircraft,whose reliability is related to the function and changes with their physical properties,external conditions,and degradation.Meanwhile,due to the limitation of testing resources,epistemic uncertainties stemming from the small samples are present in TPS reliability modeling.However,current TPS reliability modeling methods face challenges in characterizing the relationships among reliability and physical properties,external conditions,degradation,and epistemic uncertainties.Therefore,under the framework of belief reliability theory,a TPS reliability model is constructed,which takes into account the physical principle,external conditions,performance degradation,and epistemic uncertainties.A reliability simulation algorithm is proposed to calculate TPS reliability.Through a case study and comparison analysis,the proposed method is validated as more effective than the existing method.Additionally,reliability sensitivity analysis is conducted to identify the sensitive factors of reliability under the condition of small samples,through which suggestions are provided for TPS functional design and improvement. 展开更多
关键词 Thermal protection system Physical principle Epistemic uncertainty Performance degradation Belief reliability modeling
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Reliability evaluation of avionics system with imperfect fault coverage and propagated failure mechanisms 认领 引用 被引量：5
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作者 Ying CHEN Song YANG Rui KANG 《Chinese Journal of Aeronautics》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2020年第12期3437-3446,共10页
Fault tolerance designs are essential techniques for systems that require high levels of reliability,such as aircraft or spacecraft control system.Imperfect Fault Coverage(IFC)may lead to the failure of a system or su... Fault tolerance designs are essential techniques for systems that require high levels of reliability,such as aircraft or spacecraft control system.Imperfect Fault Coverage(IFC)may lead to the failure of a system or subsystem even with adequate redundancy.Previous studies of IFC mostly concentrated on evaluating Coverage Factor(CF),whereas the system failure behaviors with IFC have rarely been involved.Failures that occur in low-layer may be covered by highlayer.However,if the coverage is imperfect,uncovered failure will have functional and physical impact on the system behavior.In this thesis,the failure behavior and reliability of IFC of multi-layer systems are studied and a Binary Decision Diagram(BDD)-based modeling and simulation method are proposed to evaluate system reliability.As a case,the failure behavior of an aero engine electronic controller with IFC is studied.The results show that the IFC may impact system behavior without taking the IFC into account,the system maintenance intervals may reduce,and thus the maintenance costs will increase. 展开更多
关键词 Acceleration Binary Decision Diagram(BDD) Failure mechanism Imperfect Fault Coverage Multi-layer system Reliability evaluation
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Belief reliability modeling and analysis for planetary reducer considering multi-source uncertainties and wear 认领 引用 被引量：2
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作者 LI Yun JIANG Kaige +4 位作者 ZENG Ting CHEN Wenbin LI Xiaoyang LI Deyong ZHANG Zhiqiang 《Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics》 SCIE CSCD 2021年第5期1246-1262,共17页
The planetary reducer is a common type of transmission mechanism,which can provide high transmission accuracy and has been widely used,and it is usually required with high reliability of transmission characteristics i... The planetary reducer is a common type of transmission mechanism,which can provide high transmission accuracy and has been widely used,and it is usually required with high reliability of transmission characteristics in practice.During the manufacturing and usage stages of planetary reducers,uncertainties are ubiquitous and wear is inevitable,which affect the transmission characteristics and the reliability of planetary reducers.In this paper,belief reliability modeling and analysis considering multi-uncertainties and wear are proposed for planetary reducers.Firstly,based on the functional principle and the influence of wear,the performance margin degradation model is established using the hysteresis error as the key performance parameter,where the degradation is mainly caused by the accumulated wear.After that,multi-source uncertainties are analyzed and quantified separately,including manufacturing errors,uncertainties in operational and environmental conditions,and uncertainties in performance thresholds.Finally,the belief reliability model is established based on the performance margin degradation model.A case study of a planetary reducer is applied and the reliability sensitivity analysis is implemented to show the practicability of the proposed method.The results show that the proposed method can provide some suggestions to the design and manufacturing phases of the planetary reducer. 展开更多
关键词 belief reliability planetary reducer performance margin wear multi-source uncertainty
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Reliability modeling of the bivariate deteriorating product with both monotonic and non-monotonic degradation paths 认领 引用 被引量：3
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作者 SUN Fuqiang GUO Hongxuan LIU Jingcheng 《Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics》 SCIE CSCD 2021年第4期971-983,共13页
Fiber optical gyroscope(FOG)is a highly reliable navigation element,and the degradation trajectories of its two accuracy indexes are monotonic and non-monotonic respectively.In this paper,a flexible accelerated degrad... Fiber optical gyroscope(FOG)is a highly reliable navigation element,and the degradation trajectories of its two accuracy indexes are monotonic and non-monotonic respectively.In this paper,a flexible accelerated degradation testing(ADT)model is used for analyzing the bivariate dependent degradation process of FOG.The time-varying copulas are employed to consider the dynamic dependency structure between two marginal degradation processes as the Wiener process and the inverse Gaussian process.The statistical inference is implemented by utilizing an inference function for the margins(IFM)approach.It is demonstrated that the proposed method is powerful in modeling the joint distribution with various margins. 展开更多
关键词 fiber optical gyroscope bivariate accelerated degradation testing Wiener process inverse Gaussian process time-varying copulas dependence
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Reliability analysis of k-out-of-n system with load-sharing and failure propagation effect 认领 引用 被引量：2
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作者 CHEN Ying MA Qichao +1 位作者 WANG Ze LI Yingyi 《Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics》 SCIE CSCD 2021年第5期1221-1231,共11页
In complex systems,functional dependency and physical dependency may have a coupling effect.In this paper,the reliability of a k-out-of-n system is analyzed considering load-sharing effect and failure mechanism(FM)pro... In complex systems,functional dependency and physical dependency may have a coupling effect.In this paper,the reliability of a k-out-of-n system is analyzed considering load-sharing effect and failure mechanism(FM)propagation.Three types of FMs are considered and an accumulative damage model is proposed to illustrate the system behavior of the k-out-of-n system and the coupling effect between load-sharing effect and FM propagation effect.A combinational algorithm based on Binary decision diagram(BDD)and Monte-Carlo simulation is presented to evaluate the complex system behavior and reliability of the k-out-of-n system.A current stabilizing system that consists of a 3-out-of-6 subsystem with FM propagation effect is presented as a case to illustrate the complex behavior and to verify the applicability of the proposed method.Due to the coupling effect change,the main mechanism and failure mode will be changed,and the system lifetime is shortened.Reasons are analyzed and results show that different sensitivity factors of three different FMs lead to the change of the development rate,thus changing the failure scenario.Neglecting the coupling effect may lead to an incomplete and ineffective measuring and monitoring plan.Design strategies must be adopted to make the FM propagation insensitive to load-sharing effect. 展开更多
关键词 k-out-of-n system load-sharing effect failure mechanism propagation damage factor model combinational algorithm
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System reliability evaluation method considering physical dependency with FMT and BDD analytical algorithm 认领 引用 被引量：2
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作者 CHEN Ying WANG Yanfang +1 位作者 YANG Song KANG Rui 《Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics》 SCIE CSCD 2022年第1期222-232,共11页
Recently, the physics-of-failure(PoF) method has been more and more popular in engineering to understand the failure mechanisms(FMs) of products.However, due to the lack of system modeling methods and problem-solving ... Recently, the physics-of-failure(PoF) method has been more and more popular in engineering to understand the failure mechanisms(FMs) of products.However, due to the lack of system modeling methods and problem-solving algorithms,the information of FMs cannot be used to evaluate system reliability.This paper presents a system reliability evaluation method with failure mechanism tree(FMT) considering physical dependency(PDEP) such as competition, trigger, acceleration, inhibition, damage accumulation, and parameter combination.And the binary decision diagram(BDD) analytical algorithm is developed to establish a system reliability model.The operation rules of ite operators for generating BDD are discussed.The flow chart of system reliability evaluation method based on FMT and BDD is proposed.The proposed method is applied in the case of an electronic controller drive unit.Results show that the method is effective to evaluate system reliability from the perspective of FM. 展开更多
关键词 system reliability modeling failure physical dependency failure mechanism tree(FMT) binary decision diagram(BDD)
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Reliability evaluation of PMS considering coupling effect of functional and physical dependency 认领 引用 被引量：1
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作者 Ying CHEN Qichao MA Rui KANG 《Chinese Journal of Aeronautics》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2022年第2期154-163,共10页
Aviation and aerospace system are typical Phased-Mission Systems(PMSs)featured with varying configuration,phased load condition and cross phase failure correlation.The coupling effect of Functional Dependency(FDEP)and... Aviation and aerospace system are typical Phased-Mission Systems(PMSs)featured with varying configuration,phased load condition and cross phase failure correlation.The coupling effect of Functional Dependency(FDEP)and Physical Dependency(PDEP)has a unique influence on the failure behavior of PMS.In this article,the coupling effect is analyzed,and the degradation of components is modeled with the positive drift wiener process,in which the drift coefficient is related to environmental conditions and operation stress.Finally,failure behavior and system reliability are simulated.An avionics controller is studied as a case,with the degradation time distribution model and simulation algorithm,the coupling effect and dynamical system reliability can be achieved.Results show that this modeling method can describe the coupling effects of FDEP and PDEP and their influence on the failure behavior and reliability of the PMS system. 展开更多
关键词 Functional dependency Phased-mission system Physical dependency Reliability evaluation Stochastic degradation process
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Two new multi-phase reliability growth models from the perspective of time between failures and their applications 认领 引用 被引量：4
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作者 Kunsong LIN Yunxia CHEN 《Chinese Journal of Aeronautics》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2021年第5期341-349,共9页
Aviation products would go through a multi-phase improvement in reliability performance during the research and development process.In the literature,most of the existing reliability growth models assume a constant fa... Aviation products would go through a multi-phase improvement in reliability performance during the research and development process.In the literature,most of the existing reliability growth models assume a constant failure intensity in each test phase,which inevitably limits the scope of the application.To address this problem,we propose two new models considering timevarying failure intensity in each stage.The proposed models borrow the idea from the accelerated failure-time models.It is assumed that time between failures follow the log-location-scale distribution and the scale parameters in each phase do not change,which forms the basis for integrating the data from all test stages.For the test-find-test scenario,an improvement factor is introduced to construct the relationship between two successive location parameters.Whereas for the test-fix-test scenario,the instantaneous cumulative time between failures is assumed to be consistent with Duane model and derive the formulation of location parameter.Likelihood ratio test is further utilized to test whether the assumption of constant failure intensity in each phase is suitable.Several applications with real reliability growth data show that the assumptions are reasonable and the proposed models outperform the existing models. 展开更多
关键词 Reliability growth Test-find-test strategy Test-fix-test strategy Time-varying failure intensity Time between failures
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Belief reliability:a scientific exploration of reliability engineering 认领 引用 被引量：9
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作者 ZHANG Qingyuan LI Xiaoyang +1 位作者 ZU Tianpei KANG Rui 《Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics》 SCIE CSCD 2024年第3期619-643,共25页
This paper systematically introduces and reviews a scientific exploration of reliability called the belief reliability.Beginning with the origin of reliability engineering,the problems of present theories for reliabil... This paper systematically introduces and reviews a scientific exploration of reliability called the belief reliability.Beginning with the origin of reliability engineering,the problems of present theories for reliability engineering are summarized as a query,a dilemma,and a puzzle.Then,through philosophical reflection,we introduce the theoretical solutions given by belief reliability theory,including scientific principles,basic equations,reliability science experiments,and mathematical measures.The basic methods and technologies of belief reliability,namely,belief reliability analysis,function-oriented belief reliability design,belief reliability evaluation,and several newly developed methods and technologies are sequentially elaborated and overviewed.Based on the above investigations,we summarize the significance of belief reliability theory and make some prospects about future research,aiming to promote the development of reliability science and engineering. 展开更多
关键词 belief reliability performance margin reliability experiment chance measure uncertainty
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Location and allocation problem for spare parts depots on integrated logistics support 认领 引用 被引量：4
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作者 WEN Meilin LU Bohan +1 位作者 LI Shuyu KANG Rui 《Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics》 SCIE CSCD 2019年第6期1252-1259,共8页
In equipment integrated logistics support(ILS), the supply capability of spare parts is a significant factor. There are lots of depots in the traditional support system, which makes too many redundant spare parts and ... In equipment integrated logistics support(ILS), the supply capability of spare parts is a significant factor. There are lots of depots in the traditional support system, which makes too many redundant spare parts and causes high cost of support. Meanwhile,the inconsistency among depots makes it difficult to manage spare parts. With the development of information technology and transportation, the supply network has become more efficient. In order to further improve the efficiency of supply-support work and the availability of the equipment system, building a system of one centralized depot with multiple depots becomes an appropriate way.In this case, location selection of the depots including centralized depots and multiple depots becomes a top priority in the support system. This paper will focus on the location selection problem of centralized depots considering ILS factors. Unlike the common location selection problem, depots in ILS require a higher service level. Therefore, it becomes desperately necessary to take the high requirement of the mission into account while determining location of depots. Based on this, we raise an optimal depot location model. First, the expected transportation cost is calculated.Next, factors in ILS such as response time, availability and fill rate are analyzed for evaluating positions of open depots. Then, an optimization model of depot location is developed with the minimum expected cost of transportation as objective and ILS factors as constraints. Finally, a numerical case is studied to prove the validity of the model by using the genetic algorithm. Results show that depot location obtained by this model can guarantee the effectiveness and capability of ILS well. 展开更多
关键词 location problem spare parts depot integrated logis tics support genetic algorithm.
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Bayesian-based information extraction and aggregation approach for multilevel systems with multi-source data 认领 引用 被引量：4
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作者 Lechang Yang Jianguo Zhang +1 位作者 Yanling Guo Qian Wang 《Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics》 SCIE CSCD 2017年第2期385-400,共16页
The ever-increasing complexity of industry facilities has made the reliability analysis and assessment an imperative yet tough work. Motivated by practical engineering requirement, this paper develops a Bayesian-based... The ever-increasing complexity of industry facilities has made the reliability analysis and assessment an imperative yet tough work. Motivated by practical engineering requirement, this paper develops a Bayesian-based information extraction and aggregation (BIEA) approach for system level reliability estimation of a complex system. It takes both subjective judgments and objective field outputs into consideration. Novel features of this approach is a unique information content based aggregation process, which allows a flexible application of this framework in separated modules on account for purpose. The coherency of which is guaranteed by the objective information content calculation. This work goes beyond the alternatives that deal with solely attributed data under ideal information circumstance, and investigates a more generic tool for real engineering application. Limitations embedded in traditional statistical modeling methods have been eliminated in a nature manner by information transition and integration. In addition, a double axis driving mechanism (DADM) for erecting the antenna of a satellite is demonstrated as case study for benefit illustration and effectiveness verification. © 2017 Beijing Institute of Aerospace Information. 展开更多
关键词 Artificial intelligence Data fusion Information analysis Information retrieval Reliability Reliability analysis
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Comparative study between crack closure model and Willenborg model for fatigue prediction under overload effects 认领 引用
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作者 Jiang Shan Zhang Wei +1 位作者 He Jingjing Wang Zili 《Chinese Journal of Aeronautics》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2016年第6期1618-1625,共8页
A comparative study is performed between a crack closure model and the Willenborg model, which can calculate the fatigue crack growth rate under the overload effects. The modified virtual crack annealing(VCA) model is... A comparative study is performed between a crack closure model and the Willenborg model, which can calculate the fatigue crack growth rate under the overload effects. The modified virtual crack annealing(VCA) model is briefly reviewed, which is based on the equivalent plastic zone concept. In this method, the retardation phenomenon is explained by the crack closure level variation, which is derived from the interactions between forward and reverse plastic zones ahead of the crack tip. As a comparison, the Forman equation in conjunction with the Willenborg model is also reviewed. The retardation phenomenon is described by directly modifying the stress intensity factor. It is known that the large plastic zone created by the overload can decelerate the fatigue crack growth rate until the crack grows beyond this region. A relationship between the plastic zone and the modified stress intensity factor is developed, which is a mathematical fitting equation instead of physical-based formulation. The experimental data in aluminum alloys are used to validate these two models. Overall, good agreement is observed between the model predictions and the testing data. It is noted that the approach based on modified VCA model can give more accurate prediction curves than the Willenborg model. 展开更多
关键词 Crack closure Fatigue crack growth Interaction effects Overloads Plastic zone
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Crustal thickness,VP/VS ratio,and shear wave velocity structures beneath Myanmar and their tectonic implications 认领 引用
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作者 Lay Nwe Zigen Wei +3 位作者 Zhiwei Li Feng Bao Xuelei Li Jintao Hu 《Earthquake Research Advances》 CSCD 2022年第1期15-21,共7页
The crustal structure in Myanmar can provide valuable information for the eastern margin of the ongoing IndoEurasian collision system.We successively performed H-k stacking of the receiver function and joint inversion... The crustal structure in Myanmar can provide valuable information for the eastern margin of the ongoing IndoEurasian collision system.We successively performed H-k stacking of the receiver function and joint inversion of the receiver function and surface wave dispersion to invert the crustal thickness(H),shear wave velocity(VS),and the VP/VS ratio(k)beneath nine permanent seismic stations in Myanmar.H was found to increase from 26 km in the south and east of the study area to 51 km in the north and west,and the VP/VS ratio was complex and high.Striking differences in the crust were observed for different tectonic areas.In the Indo-Burma Range,the thick crust(H~51 km)and lower velocities may be related to the accretionary wedge from the Indian Plate.In the Central Myanmar Basin,the thin crust(H=26.9-35.5 km)and complex VP/VS ratio and VS suggest extensional tectonics.In the Eastern Shan Plateau,the relatively thick crust and normal VP/VS ratio are consistent with its location along the western edge of the rigid Sunda Block. 展开更多
关键词 Myanmar Crustal thickness VP/VSratio Shear wave velocity Receiver function Surface wave dispersion
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Reliability modeling of mutual DCFP considering failure physical dependency 认领 引用 被引量：2
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作者 CHEN Ying YANG Tianyu WANG Yanfang 《Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics》 SCIE CSCD 2023年第4期1063-1073,共11页
Degradation and overstress failures occur in many electronic systems in which the operation load and environmental conditions are complex.The dependency of them called dependent competing failure process(DCFP),has bee... Degradation and overstress failures occur in many electronic systems in which the operation load and environmental conditions are complex.The dependency of them called dependent competing failure process(DCFP),has been widely studied.Electronic system may experience mutual effects of degradation and shocks,they are considered to be interdependent.Both the degradation and the shock processes will decrease the limit of system and cause cumulative effect.Finally,the competition of hard and soft failure will cause the system failure.Based on the failure mechanism accumulation theory,this paper constructs the shock-degradation acceleration and the threshold descent model,and a system reliability model established by using these two models.The mutually DCFP effect of electronic system interaction has been decomposed into physical correlation of failure,including acceleration,accumulation and competition.As a case,a reliability of electronic system in aeronautical system has been analyzed with the proposed method.The method proposed is based on failure physical evaluation,and could provide important reference for quantitative evaluation and design improvement of the newly designed system in case of data deficiency. 展开更多
关键词 electronic system dependent competing failure process(DCFP) failure physical dependency threshold descent model competition failure modes
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Imaging internal density structure of the Laoheishan volcanic cone with cosmic ray muon radiography 认领 引用 被引量：14
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作者 Ya-Ping Cheng Ran Han +8 位作者 Zhi-Wei Li Jing-Tai Li Xin Mao Wen-Qiang Dou Xin-Zhuo Feng Xiao-Ping Ou-Yang Bin Liao Fang Liu Lei Huang 《Nuclear Science and Techniques》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2022年第7期115-124,共10页
Muon radiography is a promising technique for imaging the internal density structures of targets such as tunnels,pyramids,and volcanoes up to a scale of a few hundred meters by measuring the flux attenuation of cosmic... Muon radiography is a promising technique for imaging the internal density structures of targets such as tunnels,pyramids,and volcanoes up to a scale of a few hundred meters by measuring the flux attenuation of cosmic ray muons after they have traveled through these targets.In this study,we conducted experimental muon radiography of one of the volcanoes in the Wudalianchi area in Northeast China to image its internal density structure.The muon detector used in this study was composed of plastic scintillators and silicon photomultipliers.After approximately one and a half months of observing the crater and conduit of the Laoheishan volcano cone in Wudalianchi from September 23rd to November 10th 2019,more than 3 million muon tracks fulfilling the data selection criteria were collected.Based on the muon samples and high-resolution topography obtained through aerial photogrammetry using an unmanned aerial vehicle,a density image of the Laoheishan volcano cone was constructed.The results obtained in this experiment demonstrate the feasibility of using a radiography technique based on plastic scintillator detectors.To obtain the density distribution,we performed a detailed background analysis and found that low-energy charged particles dominated the background noise.Relatively higher densities were found near the surface of the volcanic cone,whereas relatively lower densities were found near the center of the volcanic cone.The experiment in this study is the first volcano muon tomography study performed in China.Our work provides an important reference for future research. 展开更多
关键词 Muon radiography Muon transmission imaging Density
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Percolation transition in temporal airport network 认领 引用 被引量：6
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作者 Shiyan LIU Zhenfu LI +1 位作者 Jilong ZHONG Daqing LI 《Chinese Journal of Aeronautics》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2020年第1期219-226,共8页
The air transportation system has a critical impact on the global economy.While the system reliability is essential for the operational management of air traffic,it remains challenging to understand the network reliab... The air transportation system has a critical impact on the global economy.While the system reliability is essential for the operational management of air traffic,it remains challenging to understand the network reliability of the air transportation system.This paper focuses on how the global air traffic is integrated from local scale along with operational time.The integration process of air traffic into a temporally connected network is viewed as percolation process by increasing the integration time constantly.The critical integration time TPwhich is found during the integration process can measure the global reliability of air traffic.The critical links at TPare also identified,the delay of which will influence the global integration of the airport network.These findings may provide insights on the reliability management for the temporal airport network. 展开更多
关键词 Air traffic Critical links Percolation Reliability Temporal airport network
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Bayesian optimal design of step stress accelerated degradation testing 认领 引用 被引量：3
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作者 Xiaoyang Li Mohammad Rezvanizaniani +2 位作者 Zhengzheng Ge Mohamed Abuali Jay Lee 《Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics》 SCIE CSCD 2015年第3期502-513,共12页
This study presents a Bayesian methodology for de- signing step stress accelerated degradation testing （SSADT） and its application to batteries. First, the simulation-based Bayesian de- sign framework for SSADT is p... This study presents a Bayesian methodology for de- signing step stress accelerated degradation testing （SSADT） and its application to batteries. First, the simulation-based Bayesian de- sign framework for SSADT is presented. Then, by considering his- torical data, specific optimal objectives oriented Kullback-Leibler （KL） divergence is established. A numerical example is discussed to illustrate the design approach. It is assumed that the degrada- tion model （or process） follows a drift Brownian motion; the accele- ration model follows Arrhenius equation; and the corresponding parameters follow normal and Gamma prior distributions. Using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo （MCMC） method and WinBUGS software, the comparison shows that KL divergence is better than quadratic loss for optimal criteria. Further, the effect of simulation outiiers on the optimization plan is analyzed and the preferred sur- face fitting algorithm is chosen. At the end of the paper, a NASA lithium-ion battery dataset is used as historical information and the KL divergence oriented Bayesian design is compared with maxi- mum likelihood theory oriented locally optimal design. The results show that the proposed method can provide a much better testing plan for this engineering application. 展开更多
关键词 accelerated testing Bayesian theory KL divergence,degradation optimal design battery.
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Fully Bayesian reliability assessment of multi-state systems with overlapping data 认领 引用 被引量：3
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作者 Zhipeng Hao Jianbin Guo Shengkui Zeng 《Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics》 SCIE CSCD 2017年第1期187-198,共12页
The failure data at the system level are often limited, resulting in high uncertainty to system reliability assessment. Integrating data drawn from various structural levels of the target system (e.g. the system, subs... The failure data at the system level are often limited, resulting in high uncertainty to system reliability assessment. Integrating data drawn from various structural levels of the target system (e.g. the system, subsystems, assemblies and components), i.e. the multi-level data, through Bayesian analysis can improve the precision of system reliability assessment. However, if the multi-level data are overlapping, it is challenging for Bayesian integration to develop the likelihood function. Especially for multi-state systems (MSS), the Bayesian integration with overlapping data is even more difficult. The major disadvantage of previous approaches is the intensive computation for the development of the likelihood function caused by the workload to opt the appropriate combinations of the vectors of component states consistent with the overlapping data. An improved fully Bayesian integration approach from a geometric perspective is proposed for the reliability assessment of MSS with overlapping data. In this method, a specific combination of component states is regarded as a state vector, which leads to a specific system state of the MSS, and all state vectors generate a system state space. The overlapping data are regarded as the constraints which create hyperplanes in the system state space. And a point in a hyperplane corresponds to a particular combination of the state vectors. In the light of the features of the constraints, the proposed approach introduces space partition and hyperplane segmentation, which reduces the selection workload significantly and simplifies the likelihood function for overlapping data. Two examples demonstrate the feasibility and efficiency of the proposed approach. © 1990-2011 Beijing Institute of Aerospace Information. 展开更多
关键词 Geometry Integration Reliability Reliability analysis Reliability theory Satellites Vector spaces Vectors
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Bayesian method for system reliability assessment of overlapping pass/fail data 认领 引用 被引量：4
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作者 Zhipeng Hao Shengkui Zeng Jianbin Guo 《Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics》 SCIE CSCD 2015年第1期208-214,共7页
For high reliability and long life systems, system pass/fail data are often rare. Integrating lower-level data, such as data drawn from the subsystem or component pass/fail testing,the Bayesian analysis can improve th... For high reliability and long life systems, system pass/fail data are often rare. Integrating lower-level data, such as data drawn from the subsystem or component pass/fail testing,the Bayesian analysis can improve the precision of the system reliability assessment. If the multi-level pass/fail data are overlapping,one challenging problem for the Bayesian analysis is to develop a likelihood function. Since the computation burden of the existing methods makes them infeasible for multi-component systems, this paper proposes an improved Bayesian approach for the system reliability assessment in light of overlapping data. This approach includes three steps： fristly searching for feasible paths based on the binary decision diagram, then screening feasible points based on space partition and constraint decomposition, and finally simplifying the likelihood function. An example of a satellite rolling control system demonstrates the feasibility and the efficiency of the proposed approach. 展开更多
关键词 system reliability assessment Bayesian analysis limited samples overlapping pass/fail data
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Integrated Robust Design Method Based on Maximum Tolerance Region 认领 引用 被引量：2
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作者 郭健彬 赵子覃 +2 位作者 赵健宇 曾声奎 郝志鹏 《Journal of Donghua University(English Edition)》 EI CAS 2014年第6期737-740,共4页
Traditionally,parameter design is carried out prior to tolerance design. However, this two-step design strategy cannot guarantee optimal robustness for products' quality. The proposed integrated robust design meth... Traditionally,parameter design is carried out prior to tolerance design. However, this two-step design strategy cannot guarantee optimal robustness for products' quality. The proposed integrated robust design method determined the optimal parameter and tolerance simultaneously by calculating the maximum tolerance region,thereby improving the quality of products. In addition,the proposed method did not need uncertainty analysis to obtain the maximum tolerance region,so that the calculation cost could be decreased. And the method avoided the difficulty of gaining costtolerance function as maximum tolerance region represented both demand of cost and robust. Finally,an amplifier circuit case was conducted for verification purpose. Based on the results, the proposed approach could provide robust solution with optimal maximum tolerance region. 展开更多
关键词 robust design parameter design tolerance design maximum tolerance region genetic algorithm(G A)
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